Pomegra
Markets
MAJOR
Aug 157 min read
Hartnett: National Debt Nears $40T Threatens Equity Rally
BofA's Michael Hartnett warns the surging national debt clock and stubborn 5% long-bond yields are building into a structural brake on equity markets.
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Everything Pomegra has published on IEF: 30 news articles and 0 market briefs, newest first.
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Economy
NOTABLE
Aug 126 min read
July CPI: Headline Turns Negative, Core Holds at 2.6%
July CPI report finds headline consumer prices turning negative month-over-month as core holds near 2.6%, pointing to steady disinflation without economic stress.
Markets
MAJOR
Aug 106 min read
Treasury Yields Near Monthly High as Oil Fans CPI Fears
The 10-year yield climbed to a monthly high near 4.70% and the 2-year hit 4.24% Monday as rising crude oil prices reignited inflation concerns days before Wednesday's pivotal CPI report.
Markets
MAJOR
Aug 76 min read
Fed Rate Odds Tumble After Surprise July Jobs Loss
A surprise 23,000-job loss in July sent fed rate odds for September tumbling from 54% to 44%, challenging the BofA analyst three-hike forecast for 2026.
Economy
MAJOR
Aug 37 min read
August 7 Jobs Report: Markets Brace for July Payrolls
July employment data arrives Friday amid a fractured Fed, slowing hiring momentum, and markets pricing an 80% chance of a September rate hike.
Markets
Aug 26 min read
PGIM Sees Three Sequential Fed Hikes Starting September
PGIM's Katharine Neiss, speaking on Bloomberg TV, called Chair Warsh's presser weaker than expected and forecast three sequential Fed hikes from September.
Markets
Aug 17 min read
Treasury Long-Bond Surge: Deficits and Real Rates 2026
The 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.28% as sticky real rates and a projected $2 trillion U.S. fiscal deficit push long-end borrowing costs to their highest levels in nearly two decades.
Markets
Jul 307 min read
30-Year Yield Breaches 5.20%, Rebukes Warsh's Hold
The 30-year Treasury yield surged to a 19-year high of 5.21% on Wednesday, as bond markets delivered a blunt verdict on the Federal Reserve's fifth consecutive rate hold under Chair Kevin Warsh.
Markets
Jul 247 min read
Mortgage Rates at 13-Month High on Bond Selloff
The 30-year fixed rate has climbed to 6.85%, its steepest level since June 2025, as surging Treasury yields and renewed Fed rate-hike bets reshape affordability across the U.S. housing market.
Markets
Jul 226 min read
US 10-Year Yield Eyes 4.15% as Fed Pivot Bets Build
Softer-than-expected June inflation has revived expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, pulling Treasury yields off recent peaks and pointing the 10-year note toward the 4.15% range last seen…
Geopolitics
Jul 196 min read
US Mortgage Rates Hit 6.48% as Iran War Rattles Bonds
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.48% as the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire drove oil prices sharply higher, reigniting inflation fears and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield toward…
Markets
Jul 197 min read
Yield Curve's 2026 Bear Steepener Flashes Recession Warning
The yield curve's most dangerous post-inversion phase is active in 2026 as term premiums reach decade highs and the Sahm Rule nears its recession trigger.
Markets
Jul 187 min read
Fed Pivot Delay Fears Persist as Rate Hedges Are Trimmed
Softer June inflation has prompted bond traders to unwind rate-hike bets, but the broader monetary policy outlook remains hawkish as fears of a prolonged Fed rate cut delay continue to dominate…
Economy
Jul 47 min read
Warsh: Inflation Too High Despite AI Productivity Hope
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirms the central bank's 2% price-stability mandate at the ECB's Sintra forum, holding rates steady while leaving the July decision open amid AI-fueled optimism.
Markets
Jun 296 min read
Treasury Yields Hold Steady Ahead of June Jobs Report
U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on June 29 as bond markets entered a holiday-shortened week dominated by Thursday's pivotal June nonfarm payrolls release, the summer's defining data point…
Markets
Jun 287 min read
Oil Shock and Geopolitics Keep Fed Rates High in 2026
Iran's war-driven oil supply crisis has erased all Fed rate-cut expectations, pushing U.S. inflation to 4.2% and placing borrowing costs on hold — or higher — well into late 2026.
Markets
Jun 286 min read
Fed Eyes 0.75% Rate Hike, Largest Since 1994
The Federal Reserve's June 2026 dot plot flagged a potential 75-basis-point tightening cycle as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals a decisive break from the prior easing bias, with Bank of America…
Policy & Regulation
Jun 267 min read
Fed Holds Rates, Dot Plot Signals 2026 Hike
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at the June 2026 FOMC decision while projections flipped to show a majority of officials now expect at least one rate hike before year-end.
Economy
Jun 266 min read
Core Inflation 3.4%: Fed Rate Cuts at Risk in 2026
Core PCE inflation hit 3.4% year-over-year in May 2026, forcing the Federal Reserve to scrap its rate-cut projections and signal possible hikes ahead as energy and services prices remain…
Markets
Jun 257 min read
Treasury Yields, Dollar Firm as PCE Cements Inflation Fear
U.S. Treasury yields hit multi-month highs and the dollar surged to a one-year peak as May PCE inflation rose to 4.1%, driving September Fed rate-hike odds to 68%.
Economy
Jun 256 min read
May 2026 PCE Inflation Hits 4.1%, Highest Since April 2023
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge accelerated to a three-year high in May, cementing bets on at least one rate hike before year-end as energy, healthcare, and utilities drove broad…
Markets
Jun 196 min read
Global Inflation: No All-Clear From Policymakers in 2026
Major central banks refuse to call the all-clear on inflation as energy shocks and sticky services costs cloud the global interest rate forecast for 2026.
Policy & Regulation
Jun 186 min read
Warsh Withholds Dot Plot, Drops Fed Forward Guidance
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh withheld his dot plot entry and dropped forward guidance at his first FOMC meeting, signaling a shift toward deliberate ambiguity in central bank communication.
Markets
Jun 187 min read
Warsh's Fed Debut: Rates Held, Dot Plot Pivots Hawkish
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50–3.75% on June 17 but delivered a jarring policy signal — nine officials now favor a 2026 rate hike — as incoming Chair Kevin Warsh…
Economy
Jun 56 min read
May Jobs Report: 172,000 Payrolls Top Forecasts
US nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 in May, more than doubling consensus forecasts and confirming sustained labor market resilience amid tariff pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.
Markets
Jun 47 min read
S&P 500 Snaps 9-Day Win Streak on Yields, Oil
The S&P 500 snapped a rare nine-day winning streak on June 3 as surging Treasury yields and oil prices near $98 a barrel shifted investor sentiment sharply lower.
Markets
Jun 34 min read
FOMC 2026: Divided Fed Delivers 25-bps Cut
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 3.25–3.50% on Wednesday, its first reduction in 2026, amid the sharpest internal division in three decades.
Markets
Jun 26 min read
Fed Pause Extends, Treasury Yields Near 4.6%
The Federal Reserve's six-month rate-cut freeze has driven the ten-year Treasury yield to 4.56% as sticky inflation and a divided FOMC extinguish market hopes for 2026 easing.
Markets
Jun 17 min read
FOMC June 2026: 25-bps Fed Rate Cut Debate Opens Warsh Era
The Federal Reserve's June 16–17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh opens with a minority pricing a 25-bps Fed rate cut as inflation holds at 3.8% and the interest rate outlook stays divided.
Economy
Jun 16 min read
Fed Holds Rates as Treasury Yields Test 2026 Highs
The Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate hold and a fractious 8-4 FOMC vote are resetting the Treasury yields forecast as markets scale back cut expectations for the rest of 2026.