Fed Half-Point Hike Odds Rise to 13.5% Before Warsh Speech
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at noon ET as a December hike is priced near 100%, with Waller open to 50bp.
Daily Digest
Daily Digest
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at noon ET as a December hike is priced near 100%, with Waller open to 50bp.
Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX, worth about $3.5 trillion combined, are negotiating deal terms, Bloomberg reports.

Bitcoin fell to about $62,000 on Sunday, its lowest since July, as $2 billion in leveraged liquidations and ETF outflows deepened a 23% drop from Nov. 4.

Anthropic will price its IPO Wednesday at $70-$78 a share, with ANT trading on Nasdaq Thursday at a valuation cut from $2 trillion to about $1.2 trillion.
Anthropic (ANT) could raise up to $64B in its Nasdaq debut on Nov. 19, as banks favor existing backers.
The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) rose to 5.15%, up 30 basis points this week on Fed hike odds, as Bank of America sees rates peaking at 4.5%-4.75%.
How do heavily indebted countries actually get out from under their debts? A short walkthrough of currency debasement as the long-term cycle's typical endgame - why governments choose inflation over deflation or default, how reserve currencies buy themselves extra time, and why every debasement quietly transfers wealth from savers to borrowers.

Nvidia reports fiscal third-quarter results Tuesday after the close, with Jensen Huang gone as CEO and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressing the board over China chip sales.
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Israeli AI-agent security startup Bay emerged from stealth with $50M ($37M Series A led by Battery Ventures) to monitor and control autonomous AI agents.

US AI research lab Mirendil raised a $1B Series A to build AI agents that assist scientific research.

Hancock Whitney (HWC) stock fell 10% after agreeing a $3.2B all-stock deal for Trustmark, which gives Trustmark holders 35% of the combined bank.

Richemont shares opened about 4% lower after Q2 jewelry sales rose 14%, short of the 16% expected, as a Middle East slowdown weighed on the luxury sector.
Why do recessions look so different from one another? A short walkthrough of the three kinds of economic shocks - supply, demand, and financial - how each one moves output and prices in opposite directions, why supply shocks corner central banks into stagflation, and what the 1973 oil crisis, 2008, and COVID-19 actually had in common.

Iran's security council says no enriched uranium will leave the country and resists IAEA access, as Washington reportedly asks Putin to help broker talks.

Brent crude (BZ=F) is down 2.4% this week near $95, after last week's 16% drop, as Iran's clerics weigh leaving the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

October producer prices rose 0.3%, below forecasts, but the 6.5% annual rate is the highest since November 2022, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.16%.

UFORCE (UK/Ukraine) raised a $700M Series A at a $6B valuation, co-led by Valor Equity Partners and the UK National Wealth Fund, to scale autonomous maritime, aerial and ground defence systems.

Brent crude (BZ=F) jumped 3.3% to $95.82 after Yemen's Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil pipeline sites, then held near $95.41 on Friday.

CoreWeave fell about 10% and Nebius about 12% on Nov. 12 as AI stocks sold off with Nvidia after its CEO exit and Nebius guidance stoked capex fears.
Why do economies sometimes boom or freeze without any change in fundamentals? A short walkthrough of the role of trust and confidence - how optimism becomes a self-reinforcing engine of spending and credit, why "animal spirits" can decouple markets from reality, and why rebuilding confidence after a crisis takes years even when the numbers have already recovered.

Modine (MOD) stock jumped 27% to above $135 from a $106.10 close after reports that Samsung is weighing a takeover bid. No deal has been announced yet.

Modine Manufacturing shares rose about 26% on Friday after Bloomberg reported that Samsung Electronics is in talks to acquire the data-center cooling maker.
Nvidia (NVDA) stock fell 4% after CEO Jensen Huang resigned, leaving it about 30% below its October record, with CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO.
Taiwan says China massed over 100 vessels in 'silent intimidation' drills before Trump-Xi talks, while the TAIEX index still rose 1.35% on Friday.

Cerebras (CBRS) shares jumped as much as 13% after record Q3 2026 core revenue of about $231M, a raised 2026 outlook and a new Microsoft cloud customer deal.

Imprint (US) raised $130M from Khosla Ventures, Ribbit Capital and Thrive Capital for payments, credit card and loyalty infrastructure for consumer brands.

Kospi (^KS11) fell 1% after reversing from a 5,500 high as Nvidia's CEO exit hit chip stocks, SK Hynix lost 3% and foreign investors sold over 550B won.
How do you read the health of any economy in five numbers? A short walkthrough of the five-pillar framework - production, debt, consumption, confidence, and currency - that diagnoses economies as different as ancient Rome, 1970s Britain, 2010s Japan, and today's emerging markets using the same handful of vital signs.

Take-Two shares fell 2% after Bank of America set a $1.9 billion opening-weekend bar for Grand Theft Auto VI, which launches November 19 on PS5 and Xbox.

Circle (CRCL) stock fell 5% to close at $63.82 after layoffs and an 8% drop in reserve income, as Coinbase and big banks push into stablecoins.

Kospi gave up a 3% chip-led surge above 5,500 to close down 1% at 5,290, as Samsung and SK Hynix reversed their opening gains in Seoul on Friday.

US envoys Witkoff and Kushner pressed Putin to admit Europe to Ukraine talks as Russia and Kyiv agreed a prisoner swap, with no ceasefire and Ust-Luga hit.

Neurosterix (Switzerland/US) raised $105M to advance experimental treatments for schizophrenia and other neurological conditions.

Brent crude (BZ=F) holds near $95 and is on track for a 2.4% weekly drop after Iran claimed it destroyed a US radar in Bahrain, a claim still unconfirmed.

Xi Jinping said Taiwan reunification must be achieved as Taipei rejected talks, 29 Chinese aircraft joined warships on patrol and the G7 warned Beijing.

Global Payments (GPN) stock slid 12% to about $88 after CD&R and GTCR dropped a roughly $26B buyout over financing doubts, ending the takeover talks.

Applied Materials (AMAT) posted record fiscal Q4 revenue of $10.4B, up 53%, and guided Q1 to $11.1B on AI chip demand, but shares slipped after hours.
Why don't farmers get paid the futures price when they sell their crop? The answer is basis - the gap between the futures contract price and the local spot price. A short walkthrough of cost-of-carry mechanics, how basis shifts from negative at harvest to positive pre-harvest, why farmers hedge at 'futures minus basis', and how the delivery mechanism keeps the two prices tethered together at expiration.

Mercedes-Benz (MBG.DE) stock fell 1.8% after it froze German spending and warned it may shut two plants, as union talks on €800M in savings stall.
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