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Robinhood Q3 2026: Shares Slide 5% on Lower Cost Outlook

Business & EarningsNOTABLE45m ago5 min read
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Robinhood Q3 2026: Shares Slide 5% on Lower Cost Outlook

Robinhood (HOOD) shares fell almost 5% after hours as Q3 2026 revenue of $1.42 billion met forecasts and the company trimmed its 2026 expense outlook.

  • Robinhood posted record Q3 revenue of $1.42 billion, up 12% year over year, in line with consensus.
  • The top end of 2026 adjusted operating expense and stock-based compensation guidance fell $25 million to $2.75 billion.
  • Event contracts revenue of $173 million passed crypto's $120 million.

Lead

Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) reported record third-quarter revenue of $1.42 billion, up 12% from a year earlier and 9% from the prior quarter, but the stock slipped almost 5% in extended trading after the release. On the robinhood earnings date of Oct. 27, revenue matched Wall Street's expectations. The company also lowered the high end of its full-year 2026 adjusted operating expense and stock-based compensation forecast. The shares had closed the regular session at $94.56.

What Did Robinhood Report for Q3 2026?

Robinhood reported net income of $476 million, down 14% year over year, and diluted earnings per share of $0.51, down 16%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 9% to $808 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.60 topped the $0.55 consensus.

Net income included $67 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, of unrealized losses tied mainly to the mark-to-market of Robinhood Ventures Fund I. Last-twelve-month revenue reached $5.1 billion.

Customer and asset metrics kept expanding:

  • Funded customers reached 28.7 million.
  • Platform assets rose 19% to $396 billion.
  • Gold subscribers climbed 34% to 5.2 million.
  • Net deposits totaled $16 billion in the quarter, a 17% annualized growth rate, and $71 billion over the past twelve months.

How Did the Revenue Mix Shift?

The revenue mix tilted toward newer products as crypto trading weakened. Transaction-based revenue grew 19%, led by options and event contracts, the prediction-market products offered on the platform.

Options revenue reached $399 million, up 31%. Event contracts generated $173 million, up 11% from the prior quarter and well ahead of the roughly $10 million a quarter the business produced a year earlier. That figure now exceeds crypto revenue of $120 million, which was down 55% from $268 million in the year-ago period.

Net interest revenue fell 9% to $415 million, reflecting lower interest rates compared with last year.

Why Did Robinhood Shares Fall After Hours?

The shares fell because the quarter offered no upside surprise on the top line. Some forecasts had revenue slightly higher, near $1.43 billion, and reported earnings per share of $0.51 trailed the $0.56 expected by some estimates. The adjusted earnings beat did not offset that.

The expense guidance change also drew attention. Robinhood cut the top of its 2026 adjusted operating expense and stock-based compensation range by $25 million, to $2.675 billion-$2.75 billion, and management tied the change to efficiency gains. A lower ceiling supports margins, but it can also be read as a sign of slower reinvestment while crypto activity is down sharply from last year. The company issued no revenue forecast.

Strategic Context

The quarter shows how far Robinhood's business has moved away from a single-product retail brokerage. A year ago, crypto was the main source of transaction growth. Event contracts, options and subscription products now carry more of the load.

That shift lowers dependence on digital-asset trading volumes, which swing with prices. It also brings more regulatory exposure, since prediction markets sit between securities and derivatives oversight. Interest income, which responds to the rate cycle, remains a large but shrinking share of revenue. Gold subscriptions, which grew 34%, add a recurring layer that is less sensitive to trading activity.

What Comes Next for Robinhood's Costs and Growth?

Robinhood's near-term path depends on whether event contracts and options volumes keep offsetting crypto and lower interest income. The tighter expense range sets a clearer cost ceiling for the final quarter of 2026 and the planning for 2027. Growth in funded customers, platform assets and net deposits gives the company a larger base on which to monetize.

The mark-to-market results from Robinhood Ventures Fund I show a source of earnings volatility. That volatility is separate from the operating business and can move reported results from quarter to quarter.

Outlook

Robinhood closed the third quarter with record revenue, expanding customer assets and a lower ceiling on 2026 costs, but with revenue only matching expectations and crypto well below last year's level. The stock's after-hours drop of almost 5% reflects a market that had priced in more than an in-line print. The next catalysts are the fourth-quarter report, trading activity in event contracts and options, and any further clarity on regulatory treatment of prediction markets.

Mentioned tickers: HOOD

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