Nike Q1 Fiscal 2027 Earnings: China and Turnaround in Focus

Nike (NKE) reports fiscal Q1 2027 results after the close, with consensus near $0.44 EPS on $11.3B revenue as China weakness tests the Hill turnaround.

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What Does Wall Street Expect From Nike's Fiscal Q1 Results?

Consensus points to another quarter of shrinking sales, which is in line with management's own warning. In June, Nike said revenue was likely to decline through the first half of fiscal 2027, so the bar for the top line is low.

The expected drop is concentrated in Greater China and Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Modest growth in North America is expected to offset only part of it. The gross margin line is the second focus. Management has pointed to inventory reduction, tighter product portfolio management and cost controls as sources of improvement. Tariffs remain a drag on North American margins, and a one-time tariff refund of nearly $986 million recorded after the Supreme Court struck down many of the administration's global tariffs is not expected to repeat.

Why Is China the Key Test for Nike's Turnaround?

China matters because it has been one of Nike's largest international markets and a significant contributor to profit, and it is where the recovery has been slowest. Greater China sales fell 12% to $1.30 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter. Earlier quarters showed steeper declines, including a 16% drop in one period. Consensus for the current quarter sits near $1.3 billion, a decline of about 12.6%.

Nike has been consolidating digital sales through its own channels and reducing reliance on discounting. Both moves weigh on near-term revenue in exchange for healthier pricing. Hill has said the company is "fully committed to winning" the market back. Investors will look for evidence that the rate of decline is narrowing, because stabilization in China is the most direct signal that brand heat is returning.

How Has Nike Stock Performed This Year?

Nike shares have fallen about 40% in 2026 and sit roughly 80% below their November 2021 high. The stock has been repeatedly punished after earnings. It fell about 10% after the December 2025 report on a China sales plunge and tariff costs. It fell about 9% after the March report on a weak outlook and a guided China decline of around 20%. Shares reached a 12-year low following the fiscal third quarter.

The June report was better received on the numbers. Nike topped estimates, though China sales still dropped 12% and tariffs continued to compress margins. The pattern this year has been that headline beats are overshadowed by forward guidance, so the outlook for the second quarter and the full fiscal year is likely to carry more weight than the quarter itself.

Strategic Context

Hill's plan centers on rebuilding relationships with wholesale partners, clearing excess inventory and refocusing on sport categories, particularly running and basketball. North America has shown relative resilience as wholesale accounts return. The open questions are whether new product is moving at full price and whether the inventory cleanup is largely finished.

Tariffs add a second layer. Higher duties on goods sourced from Asia compressed gross margin in earlier quarters, and the refund booked in the fourth quarter distorts comparisons. Investors will separate underlying margin progress from one-time items.

What Could Move the Stock After the Report?

Three items are likely to set the reaction. The first is China, where a decline smaller than the roughly 12.6% forecast would be read as stabilization. The second is guidance for the second quarter, which will show whether management still expects revenue declines to extend through the first half. The third is gross margin, where an improvement excluding tariff refunds would support the case that the cost and inventory actions are working.

A miss on China combined with a cautious outlook would repeat the pattern of the past three reports. A narrower China decline with firmer margin guidance would mark the first clear evidence that the turnaround is gaining traction after a year of share-price losses.

Outlook

Nike enters the report with low top-line expectations, a heavy share-price discount to its past and a market focused on China and margins. The quarter itself is expected to show continued revenue contraction. The direction of China sales and the second-quarter guidance will decide whether the print is read as a floor or as another step down.