Conagra (CAG) Q1 2027 Earnings: What to Expect Sept. 30

Conagra Brands (CAG) reports fiscal Q1 2027 results Sept. 30 with options pricing a 4.4% move as tariffs, soft demand and margin pressure weigh on estimates.

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What Is Wall Street Expecting From Conagra's Fiscal Q1 2027?

Wall Street expects declines in both sales and earnings. Revenue estimates cluster near $2.6 billion, down between 1.4% and 2% from the $2.6 billion posted in the year-earlier quarter. Adjusted EPS estimates range from $0.28 to $0.31, a drop of roughly 20% to 28% from $0.39.

Management has already set the tone. It guided first-quarter organic net sales to a low-single-digit decline and adjusted operating margin to the high single digits, well below the 11.8% reported a year earlier. Full-year fiscal 2027 guidance calls for organic net sales down 1% to 3%, adjusted operating margin of 10.0% to 10.5% and adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.50. Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS was $1.72.

The company has beaten adjusted EPS estimates in three of its four fiscal 2026 quarters, which leaves room for a modest upside surprise against a low bar.

Why Is the First Quarter Expected to Be the Weakest?

Cost pressure is front-loaded. Management expects about $40 million of tariff-related costs in fiscal 2027 to over-index to the first quarter. Existing tariffs include a 50% rate on imported tin plate steel and aluminum, a 30% rate on limited imports from China and reciprocal rates on certain other countries. Together they are expected to lift cost of goods sold by about 3% annually before mitigation.

Oil-linked and logistics costs add to the strain, alongside beef and edible oils. Management has said fiscal 2027 inflation should run 5% to 6%, after roughly 6.5% in the fourth quarter. New pricing actions are not expected to take effect until around mid-second quarter, so the first quarter absorbs the cost increases without the offset. Category demand remains soft, and lingering consumer pushback from earlier inflation-driven price increases continues to weigh on volumes.

How Have Conagra Shares Reacted to Earnings Before?

Conagra shares have moved sharply on some reports and barely at all on others. The stock rose 6.0% on Oct. 1, 2025, against an implied 4.8%, and fell 7.8% on July 10, 2025, against an implied 4.1%. On Oct. 2, 2024, it dropped 6.9% versus an implied 3.3%.

Recent reports have been quieter. The stock moved 0.4% on July 15, 2026, against an implied 5.5%, and fell 0.3% on April 1 against 4.9%. Across the last eight reports, actual moves exceeded the options-implied range in four.

Shares recently traded near $14.16, within a 52-week range of $12.53 to $20.32.

How Does the Dividend Cut Change the Setup?

The dividend is now a smaller part of the investment case. In July, Conagra cut its quarterly payout by half to $0.175 per share, or $0.70 annualized, from $1.40. It was the first reduction since 2006. The move frees about $335 million a year for debt reduction and reinvestment. At the recent share price, the new payout equates to a yield of roughly 4.9%.

For investors wondering how to find dividend per share, the figure appears in the company's earnings release and dividend declaration announcements. The Sept. 30 release will show whether the reduced rate is maintained.

Balance sheet flexibility is the underlying driver. Net debt stood at $7.1 billion at fiscal year-end, a leverage ratio of 3.83 times, and interest expense is assumed at about $360 million for fiscal 2027. Fiscal 2026 also included roughly $2.0 billion of non-cash goodwill and brand impairment charges in the fourth quarter, which produced a GAAP diluted loss of $4.00 per share for the year.

Strategic Context

New CEO John Brase is steering the company toward what management describes as profitable growth, with inflation-justified pricing concentrated in frozen foods and productivity savings targeted above 4% of cost of goods sold. The risk is elasticity. Management has flagged larger-than-historical price sensitivity in frozen, where higher shelf prices could reduce household purchases before brand investment gains traction.

The prior-year quarter offers a reference point. Fiscal Q1 2026 delivered $2.6 billion in sales, organic net sales down 0.6% and adjusted EPS of $0.39, down 26.4% from $0.53. Grocery & Snacks and Refrigerated & Frozen each contributed about $1.1 billion.

Outlook

Conagra enters its Sept. 30 report with expectations reset lower and management having signaled a weak first quarter. The key items are whether organic sales and margin land inside guidance, whether the $0.28 to $0.31 EPS range holds, and whether management reaffirms the $1.40 to $1.50 full-year target as pricing begins to phase in during the second quarter. Results will also show how much frozen-food volume responds to price increases, a read-through for other packaged-food companies facing the same cost and demand pressures.