PomegraCaterpillar Stock Falls 9% After Unchanged Guidance
Why is Caterpillar stock down today?
Caterpillar (CAT) stock fell about 9% to roughly $645 on Thursday after it kept its 2026 growth forecast unchanged, even as profit beat estimates and backlog hit a record $78.1B.
Key numbers
| Revenue | $20.7B+17% YoY |
|---|---|
| Order backlog | $78.1B+$6B vs prior quarter |
| Adjusted operating margin | 20.6%vs 17.5% a year ago |
| Adjusted profit per share | $7.20beat $7.08 estimate |
| Share price | ~$645-9.5% vs $713.38 prior close |
What happened
Caterpillar (CAT) stock fell about 9% to roughly $645 on Thursday after it kept its 2026 growth forecast unchanged, even as profit beat estimates and backlog hit a record $78.1B. Sales rose 17% from a year ago to $20.7 billion, and adjusted profit per share was $7.20, above the $7.08 analysts expected. The backlog, meaning orders not yet delivered, grew by $6 billion in the quarter, slower than earlier this year. Operating margin, the share of each sales dollar kept as profit, was 20.6% on an adjusted basis.
Why it matters
Caterpillar's results show that demand from AI data centers, which buy its backup generators and turbines, is still strong, with orders at a record. Even so, investors wanted a higher forecast after a big run, and the shares were already priced for growth at about 22 times expected earnings (forward P/E). A 9% drop on a profit beat shows how high expectations have become for AI-linked stocks.
Who this affects
- MarketbearishMedium impact
- AI-linked stocks face pressure when good results are not enough.
- CompanymixedMedium impact
- Shareholders lose about 9%; record orders support the longer-term outlook.
- CompetitorsbearishLow impact
- Cummins slipped pre-market; Deere and others face similar scrutiny.
- IndustrymixedMedium impact
- Data-center power demand stays strong; growth pace questioned.
Caterpillar vs Deere, Cummins
How we got here
Caterpillar shares down 10–15% over the past month ahead of earnings, with $72B backlog in focus.
Shares close at $713.38, up 25.6% for 2026, valuing Caterpillar at $327.9B.
Caterpillar reports Q3 beat, keeps 2026 outlook; shares fall about 9%.
What to watch
- Whether backlog keeps growing after this quarter's $6B gain, especially data-center power orders.Q4 2026
- Whether margins hold near 19% as $128M tariff refunds fade against $2.2B annual tariff costs.Q4 2026
- Whether 2026 sales growth stays in the guided mid-to-high-teens range.Q4 2026
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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