PomegraAmazon Stock Set for 7% Swing After Q3 Earnings
What is Amazon stock expected to do after Q3 earnings?
Amazon (AMZN) stock is priced for a roughly 7% swing either way after Thursday's earnings, having closed at $254.60 on Wednesday, as investors look for AWS growth near 38–41% to justify $220B in capex.
Key numbers
| AWS sales growth, Q2 | 37%Fastest in 18 quarters |
|---|---|
| AWS sales expected, Q3 | $45.4B+37.5% YoY (estimate) |
| 2026 capex plan | $220BRaised from $200B |
| Options-implied move | ~7%6.6%–7.2% either way |
| Free cash flow, trailing 12 months | -$7.6BDriven by AI investment |
| EPS estimate, Q3 | $2.01Sources differ; some cite $1.96 (per [3]) |
What happened
Amazon (AMZN) stock is priced for a roughly 7% swing either way after Thursday's earnings, having closed at $254.60 on Wednesday, as investors look for AWS growth near 38–41% to justify $220B in capex. AWS, Amazon's cloud computing arm, grew 37% last quarter to $42.2 billion, its fastest pace in 18 quarters. Analysts expect about 37.5% growth this quarter, or $45.4 billion, and Deutsche Bank's high-end view is near 41%. Amazon has lifted its 2026 spending plan on data centers (capex) from $200 billion to about $220 billion.
Why it matters
Amazon is spending so heavily on AI data centers that its free cash flow, the cash left after investments, was negative $7.6 billion over the past 12 months. Strong AWS growth would suggest the spending is paying off, while slower growth could worry investors. Rivals set a high bar this week, with Microsoft's Azure up 48% and Google Cloud up 103%.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedHigh impact
- Tech investors face a roughly 7% swing either way.
- CompanymixedHigh impact
- Amazon shareholders need AWS growth to back rising spending.
- CompetitorsmixedMedium impact
- Microsoft and Google set a high cloud-growth bar this week.
- IndustrymixedMedium impact
- AI data center spending stays heavy across cloud providers.
Amazon vs Microsoft, Alphabet
How we got here
Amazon reports Q2 results; AWS sales rise 37%, fastest growth in 18 quarters.
Microsoft reports Azure up 48%; Alphabet reports Google Cloud up 103%.
Amazon shares close at $254.60, up 0.59%, the day before earnings.
Amazon due to report Q3 results after the market close.
What to watch
- Whether AWS growth reaches the 38–41% investors want, versus 37% last quarter.2026-10-29
- Whether Amazon changes its $220B 2026 capex plan or signals 2027 spending.2026-10-29
- Whether Q3 sales land at or above the top of the $197–202B guidance range.2026-10-29
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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