Pomegra
Trump signalled a "big" Ukraine agreement that could involve all of Europe after meeting Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev, days after waiving Russia sanctions.
- Trump met Kirill Dmitriev at the White House on November 5 and said a Russia-Ukraine settlement is "very close".
- He said the deal could involve "all of Europe" but gave no terms, signatories or timeline.
- The meeting follows an October 16 waiver that put a sweeping Russia sanctions package on hold.
Lead
President Donald Trump said on November 5 that a Russia-Ukraine settlement is near, after meeting Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin envoy, at the White House. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump said: "It's going to be very big. It's going to involve more than Ukraine, and I could even say it might involve all of Europe." He called it a "big, beautiful agreement" and declined to describe what he discussed with Dmitriev. The remarks came less than three weeks after Trump waived new Russia sanctions on October 16.
What Did Trump Say About the Ukraine Deal?
Trump said he expects an agreement that goes beyond a ceasefire in Ukraine but offered no terms, signatories or timetable. He said "we're going to be very close to settling Russia-Ukraine" and put combined Russian and Ukrainian losses at about 25,000 casualties a month, which he cited as the reason for urgency.
Dmitriev's visit followed an event hosted by First Lady Melania Trump. It brought Russian and Ukrainian representatives together, including Russia's human rights commissioner and Ukrainian parliamentarians. Trump did not attend that gathering and did not meet the Ukrainian delegation. Melania Trump also sent personal letters to Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin on November 5.
The event built on a local six-day truce in Oleshky, in Russian-occupied Kherson region, which ran from October 27 to November 1. About 800 civilians were evacuated and food and medical supplies were delivered. The truce is the only concrete arrangement between the two sides cited in connection with the current diplomacy.
Why Does the Sanctions Waiver Matter for the Deal?
The waiver matters because it removed the main source of new financial pressure on Moscow just as talks gained momentum. On October 16, Trump signed an order waiving a sanctions package passed by Congress and certified that the step served US national interests. He said he did not want to drive Russia away from the bargaining table.
The decision drew bipartisan criticism in Congress. Zelensky called it "wrong" and said it "only helps the Russians." The package sat on top of existing measures, including the October 2025 designations of oil producers Rosneft (ROSN) and Lukoil (LKOH), which remain in place as the main leverage the United States holds in any negotiation.
For Moscow, the sequence has strengthened its position. It has secured a high-level channel to the White House and avoided new penalties, and it faces no fresh deadline.
How Could a Deal Affect Europe?
A deal framed around "all of Europe" would put European security architecture on the table, a subject Europeans have wanted to negotiate themselves. Trump's comments feed Ukrainian and European concern that Washington may pivot toward the Kremlin on a wider settlement. Such a settlement could cover the US military presence on the continent and Russia's influence over its neighbours.
European governments have struggled to agree on a single negotiating voice. The Kremlin said on Friday that Europe is having difficulty deciding who will represent it in future security talks. That gap gives Moscow and Washington room to set the agenda first.
The economic channels run through energy, frozen assets and reconstruction. Any easing of restrictions on Russian oil and gas would reshape European supply decisions. Any formal sanctions relief would also test the unity of the European Union, where sanctions renewals require consensus.
Market and Energy Dimension
Energy markets are the quickest transmission channel, though Ukraine is currently a secondary driver. The crude oil price swung sharply this week, with Brent falling about 18% from its October 30 high to a November 5 low. The fall followed US midterm results and bets on a Middle East peace. Brent rebounded on November 6 to around $100 a barrel as attacks near the Strait of Hormuz persisted.
A credible Ukraine settlement would add downward pressure on risk premiums tied to Russian supply, while sanctions relief would raise the volume of Russian crude available to buyers. Russian assets, tracked through the MOEX Russia index, are the other gauge of how investors price the odds of a settlement, since sanctions relief and lower war risk feed directly into Russian equities and the ruble. Over the next three to twelve months, the key variables are whether sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are eased, and whether Europe is given a formal role.
Outlook
Trump has signalled a large agreement but has not named its terms, and the Kremlin and Kyiv have not detailed their positions. The next signals to watch are whether Washington opens direct talks with Kyiv and European capitals on the framework, whether the October waiver is followed by formal sanctions relief, and whether the Oleshky truce model is extended to other front-line areas. Until those steps appear, the diplomacy remains a channel between Washington and Moscow, with Ukraine and Europe still seeking a seat at the table.
