Gold Hits Seven-Week Low Near $4,110 as Fed Hike Bets Rise

Gold slid to a seven-week low near $4,110 as Treasury yields climbed and Fed rate hike bets rose, sending Newmont (NEM) down more than 4% and miners lower.

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Gold dropped to a seven-week low near $4,110 an ounce on Monday, September 28, as rising Treasury yields and firmer bets on a federal reserve rate hike drained demand for bullion. The metal settled at roughly $4,127, down about 3.7% on the session. It has lost roughly 7% in September after touching about $4,510 earlier in the month. In the stock market today, precious-metals equities took the sharpest hit, with Newmont (NEM), the world's largest gold producer, falling more than 4%.

What Happened to Gold on Monday?

Gold fell about 3.7% on Monday, its lowest level since August 5, as a stronger dollar and higher real returns on government debt made a non-yielding asset less attractive. Spot prices broke through the $4,200 area early in the session and found a floor near $4,110, close to the technical support level traders had flagged.

The decline erased the metal's gains for 2026. Silver also slid, and the dollar firmed against major currencies. Trading extended the pattern of September, when each rebound in bullion has met fresh selling as yields rose.

Why Are Fed Rate-Hike Bets Rising?

Rate-hike bets are rising because higher oil prices have revived inflation concerns, and traders now expect the federal reserve to tighten again rather than ease. Brent crude climbed toward $106-$107 a barrel after President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, renewing worries over energy supply.

Futures pricing showed about a 70% probability of a quarter-point increase at the October meeting, up from roughly 64% a day earlier. The odds of at least one hike by December stood near 94%. Higher expected policy rates lift the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest.

How Did Newmont and Gold Miners React?

Newmont fell more than 4% and led the sector lower, with Barrick (B) also declining. Miners tend to move more sharply than bullion because their profit margins are leveraged to the realized gold price. A drop of a few percent in the metal can cut expected cash flow by a larger proportion, especially when energy costs are rising at the same time.

Newmont entered the session with a gain of roughly 15% for the year, which left room for profit-taking as gold weakened. Broader mining shares followed the same direction as investors reduced exposure to the sector.

Treasury Yields and the Dollar

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.2% and touched about 5.27% intraday, the highest level since 2007. The move reflected a repricing of inflation risk tied to energy rather than a change in growth expectations.

A firmer dollar compounded the pressure. Gold is priced in dollars, so a stronger currency makes it more expensive for buyers holding euros, yen or rupees, which weighs on physical demand in Asia and Europe.

What Comes Next for Gold Prices?

Gold's next move depends on oil, Treasury yields and U.S. economic data due this week. A sustained hold above $4,100 would keep the recent range intact. A break below that level would expose the next support zone under $4,000.

A de-escalation over Hormuz would likely pull oil lower and ease yields, which would relieve pressure on bullion and miners. A further rise in crude would strengthen the case for an October hike and extend the sell-off.

Outlook

Gold has moved from a September peak near $4,510 to a seven-week low near $4,110, with rising yields, a firmer dollar and higher oil setting the direction. Newmont's drop of more than 4% shows how quickly equity investors mark down miners when policy expectations turn hawkish. The October Fed meeting and the path of Brent crude are the main variables for the metal in the weeks ahead.