Pomegra
Bitcoin slipped under $80,000 on October 26, testing the floor of a $80K-$86K range as traders de-risk before the Federal Reserve's October 28 decision.
- Bitcoin touched about $79,146 over the weekend, its weakest level in over a month, and traded near $80,000 on Monday.
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost $635.49 million on October 22, the largest daily outflow since June 25.
- The Fed is expected to hold at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, with a December hike the focus.
Lead
Bitcoin fell as much as 1.4% on Monday to under $79,300 before recovering to around $80,000, after a weekend low of $79,146. The move left the largest cryptocurrency at the bottom of the band of $80,000 to $86,000 in which it has traded for weeks. Ether dropped nearly 3% to just above $2,300, XRP lost about 3% to $1.28, and Solana barely held $100. Bitcoin had traded at $82,708 as recently as October 21 and lost the $82,500 level last Thursday. Buyers need to reclaim that level to restore confidence.Why Did Bitcoin Fall Below $80,000?
Bitcoin fell because of three overlapping pressures: ETF redemptions, weakness in technology shares and the unwinding of leveraged long positions. Investors pulled $772.4 million from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs on Thursday and Friday. Those outflows followed a net inflow of about $301 million over the previous week, which had ended a two-week losing streak. October's cumulative net flows are roughly $174.5 million in withdrawals.
The equity backdrop added to the strain. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell as much as 1.8% at Monday's open as signs of slowing revenue growth at Anthropic deepened doubts about the artificial intelligence trade. Asian technology shares extended their slide, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index headed for a fourth straight weekly loss, its longest such streak since April. Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month Kospi target by 25%.
Positioning made the dip sharper. Coinbase (COIN) data show the largest cluster of net long bitcoin positions averaged about $81,993, with 64% of their dollar value entered above current prices. That left many holders under water and exposed to forced selling as prices fell.
What Does the Fed Meeting Mean for Bitcoin?
The Fed decision matters for bitcoin because crypto trades as a liquidity-sensitive asset, and the market is pricing a return to tightening. The federal reserve concludes its October 27-28 meeting on Wednesday. In a Reuters survey of 100 economists, 94 expected the federal funds rate to stay at 3.75%-4.00%. All 100 expected a 25 basis point increase at the December 8-9 meeting, which would lift the range to 4.00%-4.25%.
Chair Kevin Warsh has said he will not signal the next move in advance, which puts weight on the tone of his press conference. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bitcoin. A statement that confirms a December hike is largely priced in. A steeper path would pressure risk assets. A softer tone could give the market the catalyst it has lacked.
Geopolitics adds a second variable. Brent crude fell about 2% to near $114 a barrel on Monday after U.S. comments on Iran negotiations. The elevated energy price keeps inflation concerns alive and supports the case for further rate increases. This theme runs through financial markets today, where cross-asset volatility has kept leverage low.
Corporate Holders in Focus
Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder, reports third-quarter results after the U.S. close on October 29. The company holds 848,517 bitcoin bought at an average cost of $75,446 per coin, so bitcoin near $80,000 leaves its portfolio modestly in profit. It booked an $8.3 billion paper loss on its bitcoin in the second quarter. Bitcoin rose from about $57,800 to $87,400 over the third quarter, which implies a gain of roughly $20.9 billion. Investors will watch for any change in purchase pace, as the company added only 334 bitcoin during the period.What Comes Next for Bitcoin's Trading Range?
Bitcoin is likely to stay inside the $80,000 to $86,000 range unless a macro event forces a break. Immediate resistance sits at $82,500. Support at $80,000 is being tested, and the next downside markers are $78,400 and $77,600. A close below those levels would put the weekend low of $79,146 and the Strategy cost basis near $75,446 in play.
Catalysts cluster in the next four days. The Fed decision comes Wednesday, Strategy earnings follow Thursday, and ETF flow data will show whether last week's redemptions were a pause or a trend. A calm Fed and renewed inflows would favor a return toward the upper half of the range. A hawkish surprise or further AI-led equity losses would favor a break lower.
Outlook
Bitcoin enters a heavy week at the bottom of its range, with ETF demand fading, equities under pressure and a rate hike expected in December. The Fed's tone on October 28 and Strategy's results on October 29 are the nearest events capable of ending the stalemate.
