Pomegra
RBA Rate Hike Odds Jump Above 60% After Inflation Warning
Why are RBA rate hike odds rising today?
RBA rate hike odds climbed above 60% on Monday, from 22% on Oct. 20, as a deputy governor called the 4% inflation outlook "materially worse"; the Australian dollar (AUD/USD) held near 70.32 US cents.
Key numbers
| Odds of November RBA hike | >60%from 22% on Oct. 20 |
|---|---|
| Annual inflation (August) | 4%above the 2–3% target |
| RBA cash rate | 4.60%after four hikes in 2026 |
| Unemployment rate (per [2]) | 4.7%five-year high |
| ASX 200 close (per [1]) | 8,810+0.2% |
What happened
RBA rate hike odds climbed above 60% on Monday, from 22% on Oct. 20, as a deputy governor called the 4% inflation outlook "materially worse"; the Australian dollar (AUD/USD) held near 70.32 US cents. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already raised its cash rate four times this year, to 4.60%. Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said on Sunday the bank is "not quite yet" done fighting inflation, as higher oil prices from the US-Iran war work through supply chains. The RBA decides on Nov. 3, and new quarterly inflation figures arrive Wednesday.
Why it matters
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is weighing a fifth rate hike this year, which would make mortgages and business loans more expensive. Its deputy governor warned that more businesses now treat 3% to 3.5% inflation as normal, which can make rising prices harder to stop. Unemployment is already 4.7%, a five-year high, so the bank is balancing prices against jobs.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedMedium impact
- Traders price a likelier hike; Australian shares ended slightly higher.
- CompanyneutralMedium impact
- The RBA faces pressure to act before inflation expectations drift higher.
- CompetitorsneutralLow impact
- New Zealand and Canada are also expected to hike this week.
- IndustrybearishMedium impact
- Borrowers face higher repayments; households already feel the strain.
RBA vs RBNZ, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank
| Reserve Bank of AustraliaAUD | 4.60% | 2026-11-03 | Hike (>60% odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve Bank of New ZealandNZD | — | 2026-10-28 | Hike (88–100% priced) |
| Federal ReserveUSD | — | 2026-10-28 | Hold (~91%) |
| European Central BankEUR | — | 2026-10-29 | Hold (~90%) |
As of 2026-10-26
How we got here
Markets price a 22% chance of a November RBA hike.
Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser calls the inflation outlook "materially worse"; hike odds reach 51%.
RBA's Sarah Hunter says the bank is "not quite yet" done fighting inflation.
Market odds of a November hike rise above 60%.
What to watch
- September-quarter inflation data; economists expect 1.3% quarterly and 3.9% annual headline inflation.2026-10-28
- RBA rate decision; some reports cite Nov. 2, but the announcement is set for Nov. 3.2026-11-03
- Oil prices tied to the US-Iran war, which the RBA says feed inflation.2026-10-28
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
More briefsAll briefs →
Moderna Stock Falls 17% After Cancer Vaccine Data Leak
Moderna (MRNA) slid another 1.3% Friday to $200 as investors weighed a 42% cut in melanoma recurrence risk.
Serbia's Student List Wins Election as Vučić Concedes After 14 Years
Turnout near 70%, the highest since 1992, put the Student List on track for about 138 of 250 seats.
Oil Slips 1.8% to $114.60 After Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia
Brent (BZ=F) is still up 6% for the week as Saudi Arabia reports no verified damage at Aramco sites