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S&P 500 Falls 1.8% Ahead of Midterms as AI Worries Grow
Why did the S&P 500 fall 1.8%?
S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1.8% to 7,580 on Friday after AI spending worries drove a tech sell-off, days before midterm elections that could hand Democrats Congress.
Key numbers
| S&P 500 close | 7,580-1.8% on Friday |
|---|---|
| Nasdaq Composite close | 25,437-2.9% on Friday |
| S&P 500 year to date | +10.7%as of Oct 30 |
| Intel shares | Nearly -29%Friday, worst day since 1974 |
| Democratic sweep odds (Polymarket) | 66%up from about 30% earlier in 2026 |
| Expected S&P 500 swing on Nov 4 | 1.2x normalabout half the presidential-election level |
What happened
S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1.8% to 7,580 on Friday after AI spending worries drove a tech sell-off, days before midterm elections that could hand Democrats Congress. Chipmaker Intel dropped nearly 29%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 2.9%. Betting markets give Democrats roughly a 65% chance of winning both the House and the Senate in Tuesday's vote. Investors are weighing what that would mean for defense spending, health care and data-center building.
Why it matters
The S&P 500 is heading into a vote that could change the rules for several big industries. Democrats are seen as tougher on data-center building, and drone funding is among the defense spending seen at risk. Health care stocks are seen as likely winners, since Democrats could reverse some Medicaid and health-insurance subsidy cuts. Options traders expect only a modestly bigger market swing than usual on Wednesday.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedMedium impact
- Investors expect only a modestly bigger swing after the vote.
- CompanyneutralMedium impact
- Index holders face a mix of winners and losers.
- CompetitorsbullishLow impact
- Health care shares are seen as likely winners from a Democratic sweep.
- IndustrybearishMedium impact
- Data-center and drone makers face possible new restrictions and taxes.
S&P 500 vs Dow Jones, Nasdaq Composite
| S&P 500SPX | 7,580.07 | -1.8% | +10.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJI | 51,770.31 | -1.1% | +7.7% |
| Nasdaq CompositeIXIC | 25,437.00 | -2.9% | +9.4% |
As of 2026-10-30
How we got here
Prediction markets put Democratic odds of sweeping Congress at 63% (Kalshi) and 65% (Polymarket).
Options markets price a Nov 4 S&P 500 swing about 20% above normal.
S&P 500 falls 1.8% and Nasdaq 2.9% as AI worries hit tech; Intel drops nearly 29%.
US midterm elections take place.
What to watch
- Whether Senate control is settled quickly or takes weeks to count, which could unsettle markets.2026-11-04
- Earnings from Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, Palantir and Amgen, testing the market's AI optimism.2026-11-02
- Early signals from a new Congress on data-center rules and drone and defense funding.Q1 2027
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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