PomegraCanada Tariffs Stay at 50% as Trump Predicts Trade Deal 'Soon'
Will the US and Canada sign a trade deal before the midterms?
Canada's tariff deal with the US remains unsettled: Trump said Sunday it will come 'pretty soon,' but Canadian officials expect nothing before the Nov. 3 midterms despite 50% tariffs on some goods.
Key numbers
| Tariff on affected Canadian goods | 50%on about $20B of goods |
|---|---|
| US midterm elections | Nov. 3no deal expected before (per [3]) |
| S&P/TSX Composite (Friday close) | 35,788-0.5% (per [6]) |
| Threatened tariff on cars, trucks, parts, steel | 50%from Jan. 1, 2027 (per [3]) |
| Current Canadian auto tariff | 25%15% floated (per [4]) |
What happened
Canada's tariff deal with the US remains unsettled: Trump said Sunday it will come 'pretty soon,' but Canadian officials expect nothing before the Nov. 3 midterms despite 50% tariffs on some goods. Trump told a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, 'We'll have that settled pretty soon'. Canadian officials have told industry groups they expect no deal before the vote. Prime Minister Mark Carney said talks have only 'slightly' picked up. Canada's main stock index, the TSX, fell 0.5% to 35,788 on Friday.
Why it matters
A US-Canada trade deal matters because the United States is Canada's biggest customer, so tariffs of up to 50% raise costs and threaten sales for Canadian exporters. With officials expecting no deal before the Nov. 3 midterms, businesses face more weeks of uncertainty. Trump has also threatened 50% tariffs on cars, trucks, auto parts and steel from Jan. 1, 2027.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedMedium impact
- Canadian investors face tariff uncertainty until after the midterms.
- CompanybearishMedium impact
- Canadian exporters face 50% tariffs on some goods.
- CompetitorsneutralLow impact
- No clear rival winners; talks involve Canada alone.
- IndustrybearishMedium impact
- Canadian autos, steel and lumber stay under US tariffs.
Canada vs Mexico, European Union
| Canada (S&P/TSX Composite)^GSPTSE | 35,788 | -0.5% | 50% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico— | — | — | — |
| European Union— | — | — | — |
As of 2026-10-23
How we got here
US-Canada trade talks break down; Trump imposes new tariffs, up to 50% on some goods.
Some tariffs removed Friday at Senator Susan Collins' request.
Trump tells Port Huron, Michigan rally a deal is coming 'pretty soon'; adviser Hassett says talks 'gathering steam'.
Carney says talks have 'slightly' intensified because the US is moving toward Canada's position.
CBC reports officials told industry groups no deal is expected before Nov. 3.
What to watch
- New 50% tariffs on more Canadian goods, such as cocoa powder and vinyl flooring, take effect at month's end.End of October 2026
- US midterm elections, after which Canadian officials may resume serious trade talks.2026-11-03
- Threatened 50% US tariffs on cars, trucks, auto parts and steel.2027-01-01
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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