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Tesla Stock Falls 2% After Cutting 2026 Capex Outlook

SEC / Tesla Investor Relations2 min read6 sources

Why did Tesla stock fall 2% after earnings?

Tesla (TSLA) stock fell 2% to about $375 on Thursday after the company cut its 2026 capex outlook to about $20 billion from over $25 billion, despite a Q3 earnings beat.

Key numbers

Adjusted EPS$0.48vs $0.45 expected
Revenue$28.05Bflat YoY
Auto gross margin (ex-credits)18.1%+2.7 pts YoY
2026 capex outlook~$20Bfrom over $25B
Operating income$718M-56% YoY
Free cash flow$1.53Bvs $3.99B a year ago

What happened

Tesla (TSLA) stock fell 2% to about $375 on Thursday after the company cut its 2026 capex outlook to about $20 billion from over $25 billion, despite a Q3 earnings beat. Profit of $0.48 a share beat the $0.45 analysts expected, and sales of $28.05 billion, flat from a year ago, roughly matched forecasts. Auto gross margin (profit left from each sale after production costs), excluding regulatory credits, rose to 18.1% from 15.4% a year earlier. Tesla spent $4.7 billion in the quarter and will pay for the smaller 2026 budget mostly from its own cash.

Why it matters

Tesla is planning to spend about $5 billion less than it said on AI and robot projects, and many investors own the stock because of those big bets. Lower spending leaves more cash in the bank, but it can also hint at slower growth. Tesla's shares are also priced far above carmakers like Ford and GM, so investors read every spending clue closely.

Who this affects

Marketmixed
Medium impact
Tesla holders hit by dip as AI-spending doubts grow.
Companymixed
Medium impact
Car margins improved, but operating profit still fell 56%.
Competitorsneutral
Low impact
Ford and GM trade far cheaper; little direct effect.
Industryneutral
Low impact
Race to fund AI and robotics may be cooling.

Tesla vs Ford, General Motors

TeslaTSLA188x-14%
FordF6.6x—
General MotorsGM5.2x—

As of 2026-10-22

How we got here

  1. Tesla reports Q3 after the close: $0.48 EPS, $28.05B revenue, capex outlook cut to about $20B.

  2. After-hours shares slip 2.2% to $377.88 from a $386.47 close.

  3. Shares fall about 2% in regular trading; some trackers show a 3.1% close at $374.58.

What to watch

  • Q4 spending: Tesla needs roughly $7B of capex to reach its $20B target.Q4 2026
  • Any news on a possible Tesla–SpaceX combination and its regulatory hurdles.Ongoing
  • Whether auto margins hold near 18% in the next earnings report.Q1 2027

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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