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An aerial view shows ships anchored off the coast of Khasab in Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz
Photo: Al Jazeera / AFP

Oil Holds Near $100 as Hormuz Flows Top Pre-War Levels

Al Jazeera2 min read6 sources

Why is oil down today?

Brent crude (BZ=F) slipped 0.75% to $99.57 a barrel on Tuesday as Strait of Hormuz flows topped pre-war levels, though tanker attacks and tight diesel kept oil near $100.

Key numbers

Hormuz outflows, Sep 27–29 (Kpler)19.5–22.5M bpdabout 2x a month earlier
Brent crude, Oct 6$99.57-0.75%; other reports show about $101
Crude-only flows, week to Oct 3 (Kpler)10.3M bpd23% below 13.5M baseline
Refined fuels share of Hormuz flows11%vs more than 20% pre-war
US diesel price~$6.50/galrecord, late September
Tanker incidents, past week7+attack reported daily since Oct 2

What happened

Brent crude (BZ=F) slipped 0.75% to $99.57 a barrel on Tuesday as Strait of Hormuz flows topped pre-war levels, though tanker attacks and tight diesel kept oil near $100. Data firm Kpler said oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane near Iran, ran at 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels a day on September 27–29, about double a month earlier. Refined fuels such as diesel are lagging, making up only about 11% of shipments versus more than 20% before the war. At least seven tanker incidents were reported in the past week.

Why it matters

Brent crude, the global oil price benchmark, matters because it feeds into what people pay for fuel, shipping and food. More crude leaving the Gulf has eased shortage fears and helped pull Brent back from above $103 to near $100. But diesel, which trucks and farm equipment run on, is still scarce, with US prices hitting a record near $6.50 a gallon late last month. Continued tanker attacks could cut flows again.

Who this affects

Marketmixed
Medium impact
Oil traders see easing supply but ongoing attack risk.
Companybullish
Medium impact
Saudi and other Gulf exporters gain as shipments recover.
Competitorsmixed
Medium impact
Iranian exports fall while other Gulf producers ship more.
Industrybearish
High impact
Fuel buyers and drivers still face scarce, costly diesel.

Brent Crude vs WTI Crude, US Diesel

Brent crudeBZ=F$101.20per barrel2026-10-05
WTI crudeCL=F$89.73per barrel2026-10-05
US diesel (retail)—~$6.50per gallonlate Sep, record (per [4])

As of 2026-10-05

How we got here

  1. Kpler: Hormuz oil flows peaked at 19.5–22.5M barrels a day over Sep 27–29.

  2. Three Liberian-flagged tankers struck by unknown projectiles while crossing Hormuz.

  3. Brent fell to $97.36 from above $103 as Gulf flows rebounded.

  4. Twelve crew injured on a Panama-flagged tanker; Brent near $99.57.

What to watch

  • Whether tanker attacks continue; at least one was reported daily since Oct 2.Q4 2026
  • Impact of the G7 plan to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves.Q4 2026
  • Diesel supply: analysts see full recovery unlikely before well into 2027.2027

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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