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Nucor Stock Falls 6.3% on Q3 Earnings Guidance Miss
Why is Nucor stock down today?
Nucor (NUE) stock fell 6.3% to $248.38 on Thursday on a Q3 guidance miss, after the steelmaker set EPS guidance at $5.55–$5.65, roughly 6% below the $5.99 consensus, as Q2 one-time gains fade.
Key numbers
| Nucor Q3 EPS guidance | $5.55–$5.65vs $5.99 FactSet consensus; midpoint ~6.5% below (some sources cite $6.17) [1] |
|---|---|
| NUE stock, guidance day | $248.38-6.3% (per [1]) |
| Steel Dynamics Q3 EPS guidance | $5.34–$5.38vs $5.60 consensus; midpoint ~4.6% below (per [3]) |
| STLD stock, guidance day | -4.1%own guidance miss plus sector-wide sentiment shift [3] |
| Nucor Q2 one-time items | $191M pre-tax$61M Helion revaluation + $130M raw-material refunds, neither repeats in Q3 [4][5] |
What happened
Nucor (NUE) stock fell 6.3% to $248.38 on Thursday on a Q3 guidance miss, after the steelmaker set EPS guidance at $5.55–$5.65, roughly 6% below the $5.99 consensus, as Q2 one-time gains fade. Two items that padded Q2 results won't repeat in Q3: a $61 million non-cash revaluation gain on Nucor's stake in fusion-energy startup Helion, and $130 million in cash refunds on prior raw-material purchases. Steel Dynamics (STLD) also missed, guiding Q3 earnings to $5.34–$5.38 against a $5.60 estimate, and fell 4.1% the same day. Investors now worry the demand boost from Trump's 50% steel tariffs, which cut imports' U.S. market share from 25% to 14%, is beginning to peak.
Why it matters
Nucor and Steel Dynamics are the two largest U.S. electric-arc steel producers, so their guidance sets the tone for the whole domestic industry. Both companies lifted earnings sharply over the past year by riding higher steel prices shielded by 50% import tariffs, but this miss signals those one-time benefits may now be fading. For anyone with money in U.S. manufacturing, infrastructure, or construction stocks, it matters: steel costs feed directly into the price of building everything from data centers to bridges.
Who this affects
- MarketbearishMedium impact
- Steel-sector stocks and materials ETFs sold off broadly.
- CompanybearishMedium impact
- Nucor shareholders face lower Q3 earnings than Wall Street expected.
- CompetitorsbearishMedium impact
- Steel Dynamics and Cleveland-Cliffs both fell in sympathy.
- IndustrybearishMedium impact
- Peak-tariff concern spreads across U.S. domestic steel producers.
Nucor vs Steel Dynamics, Cleveland-Cliffs
| NucorNUE:NYSE | ~$56B | -6.3% | ~+52% | ~12x |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel DynamicsSTLD:NASDAQ | ~$31B | -4.1% | ~+29% | ~11x |
| Cleveland-CliffsCLF:NYSE | $6.9B | -3.4% | — | 10x |
As of 2026-09-22
How we got here
Section 232 tariffs hit 50%, cutting imports' U.S. steel share from 25% to 14%
Nucor Q2 EPS hits $5.04 on $10.4B revenue, boosted by $191M in one-time items
Nucor guides Q3 $5.55–$5.65; Steel Dynamics guides $5.34–$5.38, both miss consensus
NUE falls 6.3% to $248.38; STLD drops 4.1% in a sector-wide selloff
What to watch
- Nucor Q3 actual results — confirm or worsen the guidance picture2026-10-26
- Any tariff-policy shift on Canadian or other steel imports that could erode marginsQ4 2026
- Construction, auto, and energy sector orders signaling whether steel demand is truly fadingQ4 2026
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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