Pomegra2-Year Treasury Yield Drops to 4.47% as Rate-Hike Odds Fall
Why did the 2-year Treasury yield fall to its lowest since September?
The 2-year Treasury yield fell about 11 basis points (0.11 percentage points) to 4.47% on Thursday, its lowest since September, after a tech stock selloff cut December Fed rate-hike odds to about 69%.
Key numbers
| 2-year Treasury yield | 4.466%-11 basis points, lowest in nearly two months |
|---|---|
| December Fed hike odds | ~69%from ~83% on Wednesday (sources show 82-83%) |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.839%-5 basis points, lowest since early September |
| S&P 500 | 7,353.73-4.4% on Thursday |
| Fed benchmark rate | 3.75%-4.00%Held last week; Hammack and Cook dissented for a hike |
What happened
The 2-year Treasury yield fell about 11 basis points (0.11 percentage points) to 4.47% on Thursday, its lowest since September, after a tech stock selloff cut December Fed rate-hike odds to about 69%. Investors bought safe U.S. government bonds as the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Nasdaq entered a correction. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack still said she expects the Fed to move to a restrictive stance, meaning rates high enough to slow the economy, to bring inflation back to 2%. Hike odds were about 83% on Wednesday.
Why it matters
The 2-year Treasury yield matters because it tracks what investors expect the Federal Reserve to do with interest rates. Lower odds of a December hike mean loan and credit card costs face less upward pressure than feared a day earlier. Hammack's remarks show some Fed officials still want higher rates, so the outlook is not settled, and Friday's jobs report could shift it again.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedHigh impact
- Bond buyers gain as yields fall; stock investors face volatility.
- CompanyneutralMedium impact
- Fed is split: some officials still want higher rates.
- CompetitorsneutralLow impact
- Global investors also moved toward safer assets.
- IndustrybullishMedium impact
- Borrowers face less pressure on loan and credit card rates.
2-Year Treasury vs 10-Year Treasury, 30-Year Treasury
| 2-Year Treasury | 4.466% | -11 bp | Lowest in nearly two months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.839% | -5 bp | Lowest since early September |
| 30-Year Treasury | 5.26% | -2 bp | — |
As of 2026-11-05
How we got here
Fed holds rates at 3.75%-4.00%; Hammack and Cook dissent in favor of a hike.
Dow jumps 3.03% in midterm rally; December hike odds reach about 82%.
S&P 500 falls 4.4%; 2-year yield drops to 4.47%; hike odds near 69%.
Hammack says policy must move to a restrictive stance, preferring smaller, more frequent steps.
What to watch
- October jobs report: economists expect 59,000 new jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%.2026-11-06
- Whether the tech selloff continues and keeps driving investors into Treasuries.Week of 2026-11-09
- Fed's December meeting decision on a possible quarter-point rate hike.December 2026
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
More briefsAll briefs →
VIX Jumps 70% to 28.2 as Volatility Funds Cut Stocks
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) posted its third-largest one-day rise as the S&P 500 fell 4.4% on AI fears.
JFrog Stock Soars 22% After Q3 Earnings Beat
JFrog (FROG) hit $91.49 after hours as cloud revenue grew 60% and the company lifted its 2026 sales outlook.
S&P 500 Sinks 4.4% on AI Selloff Before Jobs Report
The S&P 500 (SPX) awaits the October jobs report, with 65,000 new jobs and 4.2% unemployment expected.