Pomegra
Moscow and Beijing are working on a possible Trump-Putin-Xi meeting at APEC in Shenzhen on November 18-19, but Xi has not committed to the three-way format.
- The Kremlin says work is under way on a three-way meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19.
- Beijing has confirmed contacts on a Xi-Putin meeting but has not mentioned a trilateral with Trump.
- Trump says denuclearization and ending the war in Iran are on his agenda.
Lead
The Kremlin and Beijing are working on a possible trilateral meeting of President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, which opens next week. No date, agenda or format has been fixed, and the White House has not confirmed the session. Xi is described as lukewarm on the idea. A meeting of the three leaders would be the first of its kind.
What Happened?
The proposal came from Putin, who raised a three-way format during a telephone call with Trump on October 9. Trump said on October 19 that he was open to a summit with both leaders to discuss denuclearization and Ukraine. On October 21 the Kremlin said the meeting was being prepared.
On November 3, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow hoped the arrangements would be finalized "in the coming days" and called China, as host, "the main organizing force." China's foreign ministry said it was in communication with the relevant parties about a meeting between the Chinese and Russian heads of state. It did not mention Trump.
On Sunday, November 9, Trump told reporters he expected to meet Xi and Putin in China. He said the agenda would cover denuclearization and ending the war in Iran. Peskov has separately said there are no firm plans for a bilateral Trump-Putin meeting, although the two would speak if both attend.
Why Is Xi Reluctant?
Xi's reluctance reflects reputational, diplomatic and strategic risks for Beijing. Three considerations stand out.
- Optics. A three-way summit would invite comparisons to great powers deciding the fate of smaller states. That sits badly with China's public opposition to "cold war mentality" and "zero-sum games."
- Europe. Excluding European governments from a meeting on Ukraine would harden attitudes in Brussels and other capitals. Beijing faces trade pressure there as European producers react to Chinese industrial overcapacity.
- Arms control. Washington wants China brought into nuclear reduction talks. Beijing holds a far smaller arsenal than the United States or Russia and rejects a framework that would turn unequal capabilities into equal obligations.
Moscow and Washington are pressing Beijing to accept. Russia does not expect substantive Ukraine negotiations in Shenzhen. It believes China wants to claim credit once a peace settlement is in sight.
What Does Each Side Want From the Meeting?
Each leader is pursuing a different objective.
Russia wants a venue to broker an end to its war with Ukraine on terms it can accept, with China as a guarantor-style partner. The strategic partnership with Beijing is central to Moscow's economy, and Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov described it as "unprecedentedly high" during a recent visit to Beijing. The United States wants progress on nuclear arms control involving China, and it wants Beijing's influence used on Moscow and on the conflict involving Iran. China is the host of the APEC summit, a forum built around trade and investment. It has an interest in a stable external environment and in presenting itself as a mediator. A negotiating format designed around Washington's and Moscow's priorities carries more risk than reward.Economic Dimension
An APEC summit hosted in Shenzhen, China's technology and manufacturing hub, is meant to focus on trade, supply chains and investment across 21 economies. A leaders' meeting centered on security would pull attention from those issues. It would also bear on sanctions enforcement, Russian energy exports to China and the stability of the US-China trade relationship. Investors in energy and commodity markets watch for any sign that Beijing is moving toward either Washington or Moscow.
What Comes Next?
The next signal is whether Beijing acknowledges a trilateral format publicly before the summit opens on November 18. Three outcomes are plausible.
1. Full trilateral. A joint session takes place, giving the leaders a first shared forum on Ukraine, Iran and arms control. 2. Parallel bilaterals. Xi meets Putin and Trump separately, which allows Beijing to avoid the Yalta-style optics while keeping channels open. 3. No meeting. Scheduling, protocol or substantive disagreement keeps the leaders apart, and the proposal stays open for a later date.
Parallel bilateral meetings are the lowest-risk path for Beijing and the one most consistent with its public statements so far.
Outlook
Russia and the United States are pushing for a three-way summit, and China controls whether it happens. Beijing's silence on the Trump element, the arms-control question and Europe's exclusion all weigh against a full trilateral. The coming days will show whether Xi accepts the format or limits Shenzhen to separate meetings.
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