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Tempus AI stock (TEM) rose after record Q3 2026 revenue of $411.5 million and a raised full-year outlook of about $1.6 billion, extending a September rally.
- Q3 revenue rose 23% to $411.5M; adjusted EBITDA reached $25.6M, up from $1.5M a year earlier.
- 2026 revenue guidance is now $1.60-$1.605B, about 25% growth; adjusted EBITDA is guided to roughly $65M.
- Shares gained about 10% on November 2 after a roughly 30% weekly surge in September on a Morgan Stanley revenue upgrade.
Lead
Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM) reported record third-quarter revenue of $411.5 million on November 2, up 23% from a year earlier, and raised its 2026 revenue forecast to between $1.60 billion and $1.605 billion. The Chicago-based precision medicine company released results at 11:09 a.m. ET. Shares rose about 4% in pre-market trading and gained roughly 10% following the announcement. The move adds to a sharp rerating in September, when the stock jumped about 30% in a single week after Morgan Stanley lifted its revenue outlook. That has made Tempus one of the more closely watched ai stocks in healthcare.What Did Tempus AI Report for the Third Quarter?
Tempus AI reported total revenue of $411.5 million, a 23% increase, with gross profit of $266.7 million, up 27%. Both of its business lines grew:
- Diagnostics revenue was $303.5 million, up 20%, driven by 32% growth in oncology test volume. Hereditary testing revenue grew 3%.
- Data and Applications revenue was $108.1 million, up 33%, as pharmaceutical customers continued to license the company's de-identified clinical and molecular database.
Adjusted EBITDA, a profit measure that excludes items such as stock compensation and depreciation, was $25.6 million. The net loss narrowed to $14.9 million from $80.0 million a year earlier. The improvement owed largely to $42.8 million of unrealized gains on marketable securities. The operating loss was $56.9 million, compared with $61.0 million in the year-earlier quarter. The company ended the period with $854.4 million in cash and marketable securities.
Data licensing bookings exceeded $550 million year to date. Roughly 12,000 minimal residual disease tests, which look for traces of cancer after treatment, were run in the quarter, about four times the prior-year level.
Why Did Tempus AI Stock Rise?
Tempus AI stock rose because the quarter combined faster oncology volume growth, a higher revenue forecast and new pharmaceutical contracts. The guidance of about $1.6 billion implies roughly 25% annual growth, in line with the company's multiyear growth target. Adjusted EBITDA guidance held at about $65 million.
Several partnerships were announced alongside the results:
- A multi-year agreement with Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) worth up to $192.5 million in oncology and Alzheimer's and dementia data licensing.
- An expanded collaboration with Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) and Merck (NYSE: MRK) on commercializing individualized neoantigen cancer therapy.
- A $55 million, five-year neurology data collaboration with Pathos.
The shares had traded about 3% lower pre-market when the Moderna and Merck news first appeared, before turning higher after the full results.
How Did the Morgan Stanley Upgrade Set the Stage?
The Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) revenue upgrade on September 15 reset expectations before this report. The bank pointed to improved reimbursement pricing for Tempus's xT and xF diagnostics. It estimated xT pricing could add $80 million to $100 million in annual revenue beginning next year. It put xF, once approved, at $250 million to $300 million. The combined potential is $330 million to $400 million in incremental annual revenue.
Shares reached about $79.65 that week, more than 54% higher over one month but still below the 52-week high of $104.32. The third-quarter results gave investors the first full reporting period since that reassessment.
Strategic Context
Tempus has built its model on pairing genomic testing with a growing library of linked clinical records, then selling access to that data and AI tools to drugmakers. The company says it is linking 100,000 whole genomes to longitudinal clinical data. It also received FDA clearances for its ECG-PH and ECG-MR cardiology applications, extending its algorithms beyond oncology.
The pending acquisition of Personalis (NASDAQ: PSNL) has cleared regulatory review. Personalis shareholders vote on November 30, 2026.
What Comes Next for Tempus AI?
The next test is whether reimbursement gains and data licensing convert into the higher revenue the market now expects. Guidance of about $65 million in adjusted EBITDA implies a materially stronger fourth quarter than the third. The Personalis vote on November 30 is the next scheduled corporate milestone. Approval of xF pricing is the largest identified upside to revenue. GAAP profitability remains distant: the net loss narrowed mainly on investment gains, and the operating loss persists.
Outlook
Tempus AI delivered a record quarter, raised its 2026 revenue forecast and signed major pharmaceutical agreements. The stock has re-rated sharply since mid-September. Execution on oncology volumes, reimbursement and data licensing in the fourth quarter will determine whether the 25% growth trajectory holds into 2027.
Mentioned tickers: TEM, MS, BMY, MRNA, MRK, PSNL
