Marvell Technology Stock Jumps as 2031 Target Hits $90B

Marvell Technology stock surged as much as 10% after the chipmaker lifted its fiscal 2028 revenue goal to $20 billion and set a $70-90 billion fiscal 2031 range.

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The new targets lift the previous fiscal 2028 forecast of about $18 billion, which the company set on August 27, 2026. Management expects revenue of about $12 billion in fiscal 2027, up from $8.2 billion in fiscal 2026. That is roughly 47% annual growth.

What Did Marvell Announce at Its Investor Day?

Marvell announced a higher fiscal 2028 revenue target, a new fiscal 2031 range and an expanded outlook for its custom silicon business. Chief Executive Matt Murphy framed the plan around a "connectivity-first" strategy. Under it, AI systems need more bandwidth to move data between processors, memory and networks.

The company sized its addressable market at about $400 billion by 2030. Custom silicon accounts for roughly $235 billion of that, growing at an estimated 55% a year. Interconnect is about $65 billion, growing 65% a year. Switching and storage is about $85 billion, growing 40% a year.

At the $80 billion fiscal 2031 midpoint, Marvell expects revenue to break down as follows:

• Interconnect: about $37.5 billion
• Custom compute: about $30 billion
• Switching and storage: about $10 billion
• Communications and other: about $2.4 billion

Marvell also raised its fiscal 2029 custom revenue target to more than $12 billion, from more than $10 billion. The custom business generated about $1.5 billion in fiscal 2026. Marvell now ships custom silicon to all four major U.S. hyperscalers and has announced strategic agreements with Amazon Web Services, Nvidia (NVDA) and Google.

Why Did Marvell Shares React This Way?

Shares rose because the targets sit well above what the market had priced in. The fiscal 2028 goal beat the $18.2 billion consensus by about $1.8 billion. The fiscal 2031 midpoint is roughly 70% above the $46.85 billion estimate compiled by Visible Alpha.

The earnings target also exceeded expectations. Marvell guided to fiscal 2031 non-GAAP earnings per share of more than $30 at the midpoint, against a consensus of about $19. The company projects:

• Gross margin of 56-59%
• Operating margin of 44-46%
• Free cash flow margin above 36%
• A tax rate of 15%

The gain extended a strong year. The stock had already climbed more than 160% in 2026 before the event, according to prior coverage. The intraday spike faded as the session progressed, leaving the close at roughly half the day's peak gain. A move of that kind often reflects profit-taking after a sharp run-up.

One Wall Street research firm said the plan "substantially raises the ceiling on its AI opportunity" in connectivity. Chief Financial Officer Dan Durn said the global AI infrastructure buildout is continuing at large scale and speed, which supports long-term demand for the company's custom compute and networking silicon.

How Does Custom Silicon Fit Into the AI Stocks Trade?

Custom silicon is now central to how investors value AI stocks outside the dominant GPU suppliers. Hyperscalers design their own accelerators, known as XPUs, to cut costs and tailor performance. They hire partners like Marvell to handle chip design, packaging and high-speed connectivity.

Marvell also targets an "XPU attach" business, selling companion chips that connect to a customer's accelerator. The company assumes an average selling price of about $1,000 per socket and one to two attached sockets per XPU. That model lets Marvell earn revenue even where it does not design the main processor.

Interconnect is the largest planned contributor, at about $37.5 billion by fiscal 2031. This reflects a shift in AI infrastructure toward optical links, retimers and switching, as clusters grow too large for copper connections. Bandwidth, not raw compute, is increasingly the limiting factor in training and inference systems.

Strategic Context

The targets show how far Marvell has moved from its legacy mix of storage, enterprise networking and carrier products. Fiscal 2026 data-center revenue was $6.1 billion of the $8.2 billion total. The fiscal 2031 plan leaves communications and other products at about 3% of revenue.

Execution risk concentrates in customer dependence and timing. Custom programs rely on a small number of hyperscalers whose capital spending plans can shift. A ramp to $80 billion from $8.2 billion in five years would require roughly a tenfold increase in revenue. The company is betting that AI infrastructure spending persists through the decade.

Outlook

Marvell enters fiscal 2027 with an expected $12 billion in revenue and a stated path to $20 billion in fiscal 2028. Next milestones include quarterly results, updates on custom silicon ramps with hyperscaler customers, and any new design wins that support the fiscal 2029 custom target above $12 billion. The gap between the company's $80 billion midpoint and the lower consensus estimate will narrow or widen depending on those results.