Crude Oil Price Whipsaw Puts Occidental Earnings in Focus

The crude oil price fell more than 15% on US-Iran deal hopes, then rebounded on strike fears, leaving Occidental (OXY) to report earnings amid volatility.

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The crude oil price swung sharply last week as traders priced a possible US-Iran agreement after the American midterm elections, then reversed on renewed military risk. Brent crude lost about 16% over the week to settle at $98.32 a barrel on Friday, November 6, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell nearly 13% to $90.83. Producers such as Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY), which reports third-quarter earnings after the market close on Monday, November 9, are exposed to the same volatility.

What Happened to Oil Prices This Week?

Oil fell sharply early in the week, reached a two-month low, and recovered part of the loss by Friday. Prices dropped more than 7% on Monday, November 2, after the US and Iranian presidents each signaled openness to a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

The slide paused on Tuesday. Brent rose about 1.8% to roughly $106.60 after a reported US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island late Monday and Iranian rejection of Washington's demands. On Wednesday Brent briefly touched $93, its lowest level in two months. It then gained about 2.5% to near $97 on Thursday, trimming the weekly loss to about 14% at that point, before settling at $98.32 on Friday.

Prices opened lower again on Monday. Brent traded near $97.67 and WTI near $90.51 after President Donald Trump said further military operations were "highly unlikely" to be necessary if a strong nuclear agreement materialized.

Why Did Oil Rebound After the Selloff?

Oil rebounded because no agreement exists and physical risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist. Iran reported three more attacks on tankers in the strait on Thursday, and maritime monitors describe attacks as continuing at a near-record rate. A tanker east of the strait struck a mine and caught fire the same day.

Diplomacy has produced signals but no text. Iran has passed a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar and has offered to reopen Hormuz on conditions. Washington has also kept the option of force open. Estimates of the probability of resumed fighting run as high as 80%, and in that case both benchmarks would likely move back above $100.

Product markets add fragility. The recovery in Middle East crude exports has not been matched by a similar improvement in refined fuel supplies, which leaves prices prone to sudden moves in either direction.

How Does the Swing Affect Occidental?

The swing matters to Occidental because its earnings and cash flow track the crude oil price closely. The company reports after the close on Monday, and consensus calls for earnings of roughly $1.45 per share on revenue near $6.8 billion to $6.9 billion. That compares with $0.64 per share in the third quarter of 2025 and marks a sequential decline from the $2.40 reported in the second quarter, when revenue reached $8.06 billion.

Occidental has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters. Second-quarter production averaged 1.43 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, above the high end of guidance. The company raised full-year production guidance, increased its dividend by 8% and retired $1.9 billion of debt in that quarter, bringing total debt to $11.8 billion, the lowest since mid-2019.

The balance sheet reflects the OxyChem sale. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) completed its $9.7 billion cash acquisition of the chemicals unit on January 2, 2026. Berkshire also holds a stake of about 26.9% in Occidental, excluding warrants. In September, Occidental temporarily curtailed some Gulf of America output because of a third-party gas pipeline constraint, with production partially restored.

OXY shares opened near $64 in early November, within a 52-week range of $38.80 to $67.45, for a market value of about $64 billion. Investors will focus on any change to 2027 spending and output plans, which Occidental has indicated will stay flat, and on further debt reduction.

Geopolitical Dimension

The oil market is trading the sequence of US political and military decisions more than supply and demand. The midterm elections removed one constraint on Washington's Iran policy, and the Democratic victory has added uncertainty about its direction. Tehran's refusal to accept the core US demands on its nuclear program is the unresolved point, and the escalation dynamic stays in place until it is addressed.

Shipping is the main transmission channel. Mines and tanker attacks near Hormuz raise insurance costs and delay cargoes, even when negotiators report progress. Because roughly a fifth of global oil consumption passes through the strait in normal conditions, small changes in perceived access produce large price moves.

What Comes Next for Crude Oil Prices?

Crude oil prices over the next three to twelve months depend on whether talks produce a signed agreement or military action resumes. A deal that reopens Hormuz would pull prices lower, and postwar price estimates cluster around $80 to $85 a barrel. Renewed strikes or further tanker losses would likely send Brent back above $100, where it traded for much of last week's early sessions.

The near-term calendar is dense: Occidental's results and commentary on Monday, followed by US consumer price data on Tuesday and any response from Tehran to Washington's nuclear terms. Energy equities, which are tied to the crude oil price, will keep reacting to each headline.

Outlook

Oil enters the new week about 16% lower for Brent than a week earlier but well above the two-month low near $93, with no US-Iran agreement in place. Occidental's results will show how a producer with reduced debt and flat 2027 spending plans is positioned for either outcome. Direction for the crude oil price rests on diplomacy that has yet to produce a deal and on the security of shipping through Hormuz.