Brent Crude Price Posts Worst Week Since April 2020

Brent crude is down about 16% this week, its steepest weekly loss since April 2020, as peace hopes drain the war premium, before a Friday rebound to $97-99.

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Brent crude finished the week on track for its biggest weekly decline since April 2020, falling about 16% as traders priced in a possible end to the Middle East war. The crude oil price bounced back on Friday, November 6, to the $97-99 range after a two-month low earlier in the week. The slide erased a large part of the risk premium built during months of conflict involving Iran, though the rebound shows how fragile the repricing remains.

What Happened to Brent Crude This Week?

Brent lost roughly one-sixth of its value in five sessions, the sharpest weekly fall since the week ending April 24, 2020. The move was concentrated in a single session on Wednesday, when the benchmark dropped more than 8% as diplomatic signals strengthened and shipments through Gulf waters showed signs of normalizing.

The decline took Brent well below the near-$118 level reached in late October and marked a reversal of the conflict-driven rally that carried prices as high as $126 in April. West Texas Intermediate also fell sharply, though the Brent-WTI spread stayed wide at around $7 a barrel, reflecting the premium attached to seaborne crude exposed to Gulf disruption.

Why Did the Crude Oil Price Fall So Fast?

The crude oil price fell quickly because a large share of the previous rally was a geopolitical risk premium, and that premium can disappear in days when the outlook changes. Markets began pricing a lower chance of further escalation between the United States and Iran after a shift in the US political landscape following this week's midterm elections, alongside signs that peace talks were gaining traction.

Positioning amplified the move. When a premium built on supply fears collapses, funds that were long crude tend to exit together, turning a repricing into a rout. The 8%-plus daily drop reflected that dynamic as much as any change in physical supply.

Why Did Prices Rebound on Friday?

Prices rebounded on Friday because new reports of attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz reminded traders that physical risks have not been resolved. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire after trying to use unauthorized routes through the waterway, and maritime security monitors have logged several vessel incidents since Sunday.

Brent rose for the first time in four sessions, gaining roughly 1.3% to 3.9% depending on the contract and timing, to settle near $98-99 a barrel. US crude gained less, trading around $91. Weekly government inventory data added support, showing draws in crude, gasoline and distillate stocks with demand at a one-year high.

Supply Fundamentals Still Matter

The conflict has pulled close to 700 million barrels from global inventories, leaving the system with little buffer against further disruption. That depletion is the main argument against a deeper slide: even a formal end to hostilities would not immediately refill stockpiles, restore damaged infrastructure or normalize insurance and freight costs for Gulf cargoes.

For energy-importing economies, the week's drop offers some relief in fuel and transport costs, though pump prices lag crude by several weeks. For producers, a price near $98 remains historically high and well above levels that strain budgets, even as it sits far below the wartime peak.

What Comes Next for Oil Prices?

Oil prices will turn on whether diplomacy produces a verifiable ceasefire and whether commercial traffic through Hormuz stays open. Two broad scenarios frame the next three to twelve months.

In a de-escalation case, steady tanker transits and a formal settlement would keep pulling the war premium out of Brent, with prices gravitating toward levels justified by inventories and demand, likely well below $100 but supported by the need to rebuild stocks. In an escalation case, renewed strikes or further attacks on shipping would reverse this week's losses quickly, with risk assessments pointing to a possible move toward $110-125 a barrel if the strait is again disrupted.

Probabilities remain contested. The likelihood of a comprehensive deal is viewed as low even as the chance of renewed US strikes has eased, which helps explain why prices stabilized near $98 rather than extending the slide.

Outlook

Brent's 16% weekly decline shows how much of the recent price level reflected fear rather than shortage. The Friday rebound to $97-99 shows that the shortage is still real: inventories are depleted, shipping remains exposed, and diplomacy has not yet delivered a settlement. Volatility is likely to persist until either a verified peace or a fresh escalation sets the next direction.