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Oil Rises 3.9% to $98.29 as Iran Deal Odds Drop to 10%
Why did oil jump 3.9%?
Oil (Brent, BZ=F) rose 3.9% to $98.29 a barrel on Thursday as tanker attacks and Eurasia Group's cut in US-Iran deal odds to 10% fed supply worries.
Key numbers
| Brent crude, Thursday close | $98.29+3.9% (+$3.67) |
|---|---|
| WTI crude, Thursday close | $90.52+2.7% (+$2.40) |
| Brent Wednesday close | $94.62-8.7% (NBC cited -8.3% earlier in the day) |
| Eurasia Group US-Iran deal odds | 10%from 20% |
| Eurasia Group odds of renewed US strikes | 60%from 65% |
| Brent if conflict escalates (Eurasia Group) | $110-$125vs $98.29 now |
What happened
Oil (Brent, BZ=F) rose 3.9% to $98.29 a barrel on Thursday as tanker attacks and Eurasia Group's cut in US-Iran deal odds to 10% fed supply worries. Oil had fallen 8.7% on Wednesday to its lowest close since August 31, as traders bet Republican midterm losses would push Trump toward ending the war. Eurasia Group, a political risk firm, put the chance of a US-Iran deal at 10%, down from 20%, and new US strikes at 60%. Vice President JD Vance said "the reason we lost is the war" and backed calls for a diplomatic resolution.
Why it matters
Oil prices swing with every sign of war or peace, and they help set what drivers pay at the pump. US gasoline averaged $4.12 a gallon on Wednesday, 39% above pre-war levels, per NBC News. Eurasia Group's lower deal odds suggest Wednesday's relief may not last. If strikes resume, it sees Brent oil at $110 to $125 a barrel.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedHigh impact
- Oil traders face sharp swings as war and peace odds shift.
- CompanymixedMedium impact
- Oil producers gain if strikes resume, lose if peace comes.
- CompetitorsbullishMedium impact
- US crude (WTI) also rose, up 2.7% to $90.52.
- IndustrybearishMedium impact
- Drivers and shippers pay more if oil climbs again.
Brent crude vs WTI crude
| Brent crudeBZ=F | $98.29 | +3.9% | -8.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crudeCL=F | $90.52 | +2.7% | -8.3% |
As of 2026-11-05
How we got here
Brent hits a high near $118 as Gulf tanker attacks hit a record pace.
Republicans lose Congress in midterms; the Iran war and fuel prices were top voter grievances.
Vance says "the reason we lost is the war"; Brent falls 8.7% to $94.62.
Brent rebounds 3.9% to $98.29 after tanker attacks; Eurasia Group cuts deal odds to 10%.
What to watch
- Whether Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks advance or the US resumes strikes.Q4 2026
- New Gulf tanker incidents: at least 5 since Sunday, after a record 35 in October.Q4 2026
- US gasoline, now $4.12 a gallon and 39% above pre-war levels.Q4 2026
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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