Pomegra
Bitcoin holds near $80,000 ahead of the Fed rate decision as whales turn bearish for the first time since June and the OCC approves Ripple's trust bank.
- Bitcoin traded between roughly $79,800 and $80,700 on Tuesday, dipping below $80,000 before recovering ahead of the Fed decision.
- Large Hyperliquid traders turned net short for the first time since Bitcoin's rally off its June lows.
- The OCC granted Ripple National Trust Bank final approval, but XRP stayed near $1.30.
Lead
Bitcoin traded around $80,000 on Tuesday, October 27, after briefly falling below that level, as traders positioned for the Federal Reserve's policy announcement on Wednesday. The largest cryptocurrency closed the session near $80,676, up about 1% on the day and down about 2.1% on the week. Large holders, known as whales, shifted to a net short stance on the Hyperliquid derivatives platform for the first time since the June lows. Separately, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) gave Ripple final approval to operate a national trust bank.What Is Driving Bitcoin Ahead of the Fed Rate Decision?
The Fed rate decision is the main driver, because it sets the tone for risk assets across financial markets today. Futures price roughly 90% odds that the central bank holds the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00%. A hold is largely priced in, so the focus falls on the tone of the statement and any signal on the path of interest rates into 2027.
Positioning reflects that caution. Bitcoin futures open interest rose to $28.18 billion as short sellers added exposure into the meeting. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped to 48, a neutral reading, from 55 a week earlier.
Why Have Bitcoin Whales Turned Bearish?
Whales turned bearish because short positions on Hyperliquid now outweigh longs. On-chain data shows the group had held bullish positions since Bitcoin bottomed in June. Last week's shift is the first reversal of that stance since the rebound began.
The signal sits against mixed spot activity. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds drew about $110 million in net inflows on Monday after several days of outflows. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), managed by BlackRock (BLK), rose about 1.1% on Tuesday, in line with the underlying coin. Some research houses argue the market is in an accumulation zone, but that view requires a sustained move above $87,000 to be confirmed.
Key Technical Levels
Bitcoin remains capped below its 50-day exponential moving average near $80,761. Support sits at $77,725 (100-day) and $76,375 (200-day). A hold above $80,000 would open a move toward $85,000, while a close below $79,000 would put $75,000 in play.
Ethereum traded near $2,345, up about 1.1% on the day but down 3.7% on the week. Solana changed hands near $101, down 4.6% over seven days.What Does the OCC Approval of Ripple's Trust Bank Mean?
The OCC approval lets Ripple operate a federally supervised bank to manage reserves for its RLUSD stablecoin and to offer custody for institutional clients. Ripple National Trust Bank will serve as collateral trustee for the reserves and provide fiduciary custody of digital assets once it opens.
The charter is narrower than a commercial banking license. It carries no insured deposits and no lending. Ripple applied in July 2025 and received conditional approval that December. RLUSD has a market value of about $2.5 billion and is currently issued by Ripple's New York-regulated unit. Most of its reserves sit at BNY (BK).
How Did the Market React to the Approval?
The market barely reacted. XRP traded between $1.30 and $1.32, up about 2% on Tuesday but 16% below its October high of $1.56. The approval had been anticipated since the conditional nod, and token prices remain tied to broader risk appetite rather than to regulatory milestones. Resistance for XRP stands at $1.33 and $1.36, with $1.30 the level defended by buyers.
Outlook
Bitcoin's direction in the near term depends on the Fed's message. A steady policy path and a neutral tone would favor a hold above $80,000, while hawkish guidance could expose the $75,000 area, where bearish whale positioning would add pressure. The Ripple charter is a longer-term structural gain for regulated stablecoin infrastructure and has little bearing on price action this week.
Mentioned tickers: IBIT, BLK, BK
