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Brent Crude Falls 3% to $110 Despite Ukraine Refinery Strike
Why is oil down today?
Brent crude (BZ=F) fell 2.9% to about $110 a barrel on Monday as hopes for Iran talks outweighed Ukraine's new refinery strike.
Key numbers
| Brent crude | $110.2-2.9% on the day |
|---|---|
| WTI crude | $101-3% on the day |
| Kstovo refinery capacity (tonnes a year, per [2]) | 15–17M4th-largest in Russia |
| Italy's frozen aid package | 13thHeld until US midterms |
| Months since last Italian arms shipment arrived | 10Per Ukrainska Pravda |
What happened
Brent crude (BZ=F) fell 2.9% to about $110 a barrel on Monday as hopes for Iran talks outweighed Ukraine's new refinery strike. Ukraine hit the large Kstovo refinery in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod region overnight on Sunday, starting a big fire, and Russia opened a terrorism case. Moscow said Kyiv resumed strikes after a pause of several days; Trump had pushed for a halt, blaming them for higher diesel prices. Separately, reports say Italy's Meloni has frozen a 13th military aid package for Kyiv until the 3 November US midterm elections.
Why it matters
Brent crude is the world's main oil price benchmark, and it is holding near $110 because several conflicts are squeezing supply at once. Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries can keep diesel costly for truckers and shoppers. Italy's reported freeze shows some European governments are waiting on US politics before sending more air-defence weapons to Kyiv. Oil traders now watch the Iran talks and Tuesday's US vote.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedMedium impact
- Fuel buyers gain from cheaper oil today, but supply risks remain.
- CompanybearishMedium impact
- Lukoil's Kstovo refinery faces fire damage and lost output.
- CompetitorsbearishMedium impact
- Other Russian refiners stay exposed to further drone attacks.
- IndustrybearishMedium impact
- Kyiv's air-defence resupply from Italy faces delay.
Brent Crude vs WTI Crude
| Brent crudeBZ=F | $110.2 | -2.9% |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crudeCL=F | $101 | -3% |
As of 2026-11-02
How we got here
Italy's Foreign Minister Tajani says the new aid package is already finalised.
La Repubblica reports Meloni is holding the package until after the US midterms.
Drones hit the Kstovo refinery; a large fire breaks out.
Russia opens a terrorism case over the refinery attack.
Brent falls 2.9% to $110.2 as Iran-Qatar talks continue.
What to watch
- US midterm results and whether Italy then releases its 13th aid package.2026-11-03
- Iran-Qatar talks; analyst says rhetoric after the vote could push Brent toward $120.2026-11-03
- More Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and Moscow's response.Q4 2026
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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