Pomegra10-Year Yield Falls to 4.93% as Fed Hike Odds Slip to 72%
Why did the 10-year Treasury yield fall to 4.93%?
The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) fell 0.06 percentage points to 4.93% on Friday as a tech-stock selloff pushed investors into bonds, while traders cut December Fed rate-hike odds to 72%.
Key numbers
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.93%-0.06 points on Friday |
|---|---|
| December Fed hike odds | 72%from 83% after Oct. 28 meeting |
| Fed interest rate range | 3.75%–4.00%held Oct. 28, 10–2 vote |
| Inflation (PCE, yearly) | 3.6%vs Fed goal of 2% |
| September jobs added | 29,000unemployment 4.2% |
| October jobs forecast (Bloomberg) | 65,000up from 29,000 |
What happened
The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) fell 0.06 percentage points to 4.93% on Friday as a tech-stock selloff pushed investors into bonds, while traders cut December Fed rate-hike odds to 72%. The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate at 3.75% to 4% on October 28, but two of its 12 voters wanted a hike. Traders now see a 72% chance of a hike at the December 8–9 meeting, down from 83% after that decision. Friday's October jobs report, expected to show about 65,000 new jobs and 4.2% unemployment, could move that number.
Why it matters
The 10-year Treasury yield helps set borrowing costs across the economy, so a level near 5% keeps loans expensive. A Fed rate hike would push costs higher still, while weak jobs data could ease that pressure. Prices are rising 3.6% a year, well above the Fed's 2% goal, which is why officials are discussing a hike instead of a cut.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedMedium impact
- Stocks and bonds both swing on jobs data.
- CompanyneutralMedium impact
- Two of 12 Fed voters already favor a hike.
- CompetitorsbearishMedium impact
- Near-5% yields make bonds a stronger rival to stocks.
- IndustrybearishMedium impact
- Borrowers face higher costs if the Fed hikes in December.
10-Year Treasury Yield vs 2-Year Yield, Inflation
| 10-year Treasury yieldUS10Y | 4.93% | -0.06 pts (1D) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury yieldUS2Y | 4.59% | -0.06 pts (1D) |
| Inflation (PCE, yearly)— | 3.6% | +0.5% monthly |
As of 2026-10-30
How we got here
Fed holds rates at 3.75%–4%; Cook and Hammack vote for a quarter-point hike.
10-year yield falls 0.06 points to 4.93% as tech selloff lifts bond demand.
December hike odds slip to 72% from 83% after the Fed meeting.
BLS scheduled to release the October jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET.
What to watch
- Midterm elections and Apple, AMD, Palantir earnings could sway markets before jobs data.2026-11-03
- October jobs: payrolls versus roughly 65,000 forecast and unemployment versus 4.2%.2026-11-06
- Fed meeting decides whether to raise rates from 3.75%–4%; hike odds near 72%.2026-12-09
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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