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Erbil International Airport in northern Iraq, where the last US forces were completing their withdrawal
Photo: Khalid Al-Mousily / Reuters via PBS NewsHour

Oil Holds at $102 as US Completes Iraq Troop Withdrawal

Trading Economics2 min read6 sources

Did oil prices react to the US troop withdrawal from Iraq?

Brent crude (BZ=F) edged down 0.15% to $102.10 on Monday as traders weighed Middle East supply risks and emergency reserve releases after the US completed its Iraq troop withdrawal.

Key numbers

Brent crude$102.10-0.15% on the day
Brent, 12 months+55.94%vs a year ago
WTI crude$90.63-0.53% on the day
US mission length12 years2014–2026
Troops at Erbil before exit1,500per [3]; AP says only "hundreds" [4]
Hormuz crude flowsConflictingPrewar levels per [6]; one-third of prewar per Kpler in [5]

What happened

Brent crude (BZ=F) edged down 0.15% to $102.10 on Monday as traders weighed Middle East supply risks and emergency reserve releases after the US completed its Iraq troop withdrawal. The Pentagon said the last US troops and equipment left Erbil air base in northern Iraq on September 30, ending a 12-year mission against the Islamic State group. Iran and Iran-backed militias called it a victory, even as the US–Iran war that began on February 28 continues. Iraq's prime minister called it a new era of national control.

Why it matters

Oil, measured by Brent crude, is still above $100 a barrel, about 56% higher than a year ago, because the US–Iran war has disrupted shipping and fuel supply. The US exit leaves Iraq without American troops, which worries Kurdish leaders who fear more attacks by Iran-linked groups. Oil did not jump on the news, so traders appear focused on fuel supply more than the troop exit.

Who this affects

Marketneutral
Low impact
Oil traders: little reaction so far; supply risks dominate.
Companyneutral
Low impact
US military: Iraq mission over; task force moved to Jordan.
Competitorsmixed
Medium impact
Iran and allied militias: claim victory, keep their weapons.
Industrymixed
Medium impact
Iraq's oil-dependent budget: exposed to security and shipping risks.

Brent crude vs WTI crude, Gold

Brent crudeBZ=F$102.10-0.15%+5.08%+55.94%
WTI crudeCL=F$90.63-0.53%-2.58%+46.91%
GoldGC=F$4,151+0.26%-5.76%+4.76%

As of 2026-10-05

How we got here

  1. US and Iraq agree a plan to wind down the US-led coalition mission.

  2. US–Iran war begins, later spilling into Iraq with militia attacks on US troops.

  3. Pentagon says last US troops and equipment have left Erbil air base.

  4. WTI settles at $91.11 as G7 and IEA plan a 100 million barrel reserve release.

What to watch

  • Whether Iran-backed militias accept disarmament or threaten any remaining foreign forcesQ4 2026
  • Kurdish officials' fears of an Islamic State comeback after the US exitQ4 2026
  • G7 release of 100 million barrels of oil and diesel reserves over four monthsQ4 2026

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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