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ISM Prices Paid Index Jumps to 77.9 on Inflation Fears
Why did the ISM prices paid index jump today?
The ISM manufacturing prices-paid index jumped to 77.9 on Thursday from 71.1 in August, well above the 72 forecast, as pricier steel, aluminum and tariff-hit imports stoked inflation fears.
Key numbers
| ISM prices-paid index | 77.9+6.8 pts vs August |
|---|---|
| Economists' forecast | 72.0Actual beat it by 5.9 pts |
| ISM manufacturing PMI | 54.5-0.1 vs August; forecast 55.0 |
| ISM new orders index | 55.3+1.6 vs August |
| 10-year Treasury yield (session high) | 5.34%Highest since 2002 |
| S&P 500 (midday) | 7,632-0.26% |
What happened
The ISM manufacturing prices-paid index jumped to 77.9 on Thursday from 71.1 in August, well above the 72 forecast, as pricier steel, aluminum and tariff-hit imports stoked inflation fears. The index tracks what factories pay for materials, and it has now shown rising costs for 24 straight months. Overall factory activity barely changed at 54.5, just under the 55.0 forecast, but a reading above 50 still means growth. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002, and by midday the S&P 500 was down 0.26%.
Why it matters
The ISM prices-paid index matters because it shows what U.S. factories pay for materials, an early clue to whether prices could rise for shoppers. A reading of 77.9, far above the 50 dividing line, means costs are rising quickly. If inflation stays high, bond investors demand higher returns (yields), which can make mortgages and business loans costlier. Stocks slipped as those yields hit their highest level since 2002.
Who this affects
- MarketbearishMedium impact
- Bond holders and stock investors face pressure from higher yields.
- CompanybearishMedium impact
- Factories pay more for materials, squeezing their profit margins.
- CompetitorsbearishLow impact
- Other manufacturers face the same cost squeeze.
- IndustrymixedMedium impact
- Factory growth continues, but rising costs may reach shoppers.
S&P 500 vs Dow Jones, Nasdaq Composite
| S&P 500SPX | 7,632 | -0.26% | — |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJI | 50,623 | -0.56% | — |
| Nasdaq CompositeIXIC | 26,801 | -0.22% | — |
As of 2026-10-01
How we got here
ISM reports September prices-paid index at 77.9, up from 71.1 in August.
10-year Treasury yield touches 5.34%, its highest level since 2002.
By midday, S&P 500 is down 0.26% and the Dow is down 0.56%.
What to watch
- Whether the 10-year Treasury yield stays near its highest level since 20022026-10-02
- Next ISM manufacturing report, showing if factory input costs keep climbing2026-11-02
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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