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Photo: Yahoo Finance / Quartz

US Consumer Confidence Falls to 81.9 as Inflation Fears Rise

The Conference Board2 min read6 sources

Why is consumer confidence down today?

The Conference Board's US consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 on Tuesday, its lowest since 2014, as inflation worries and higher fuel costs left households more pessimistic.

Key numbers

Consumer confidence index81.9-6.7 pts vs August (88.6)
Economists' forecast89.2Actual came in 7.3 pts lower
Expectations index63.6-5.9 pts; third straight drop, below 80 recession-warning mark
Jobs plentiful vs hard to get23.6% vs 21.9%Gap narrowed from 4.2 pts (24.5% vs 20.3%)
12-month inflation expectation6.1%+0.3 pts
Finances rated bad above good2nd timeConference Board says second time; Yahoo/Quartz report says first (per [1])

What happened

The Conference Board's US consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 on Tuesday, its lowest since 2014, as inflation worries and higher fuel costs left households more pessimistic. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a reading of 89.2. For only the second time since the question began four years ago, more people called their family's finances "bad" than "good". Households now expect prices to rise 6.1% over the next year, up 0.3 percentage points from the month before.

Why it matters

US consumer confidence at its lowest since 2014 matters because household spending drives most of the American economy. When families feel poorer and more worried, they tend to spend less, which can slow sales and hiring. The forward-looking part of the gauge, at 63.6, sits below 80, a level that has often signalled a recession within a year. The Federal Reserve also raised interest rates this month, making borrowing costlier.

Who this affects

Marketbearish
Low impact
Stocks edged lower; yields and oil also drove trading.
Companybearish
Medium impact
Households feel poorer and more worried, which is negative.
Competitorsbearish
Medium impact
Michigan sentiment also near record low, confirming weakness.
Industrybearish
Medium impact
Retailers, restaurants and travel firms may see weaker spending.

Conference Board Confidence vs Michigan Sentiment, Expectations Index

Conference Board Consumer Confidence—81.988.6-6.7 pts89.2
University of Michigan Sentiment (final)—48.151.7-3.6 pts—
Conference Board Expectations Index—63.669.5-5.9 pts—

As of 2026-09-29

How we got here

  1. Conference Board survey period begins, running through September 23 and including a Fed rate hike.

  2. Fed's new interest-rate range of 3.75% to 4.00% takes effect after its hike.

  3. Final Michigan sentiment reading falls to 48.1, down 3.6 points from August.

  4. Confidence index reported at 81.9; S&P 500 closes down 0.17% at 7,670.84.

What to watch

  • Next Conference Board reading: does the Expectations Index stay below the 80 recession-warning level?October 2026
  • Fuel and oil prices, which shoppers cite most in surveys, and whether they easeQ4 2026
  • Whether the Fed raises rates again; 68.4% of consumers expect higher rates within a yearQ4 2026

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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