Curious about today's AI digest?ai-tldr.dev
Pomegra LogoPomegra

Daily Digest

BriefMarket · bearishHigh impact
Esc
Nike retail storefront as investors weigh Q1 FY2027 earnings outlook and China demand risks
Photo: Yahoo Finance / Insider Monkey

Nike Stock Falls 40% in 2026 Ahead of Q1 Earnings Thursday

Yahoo Finance / Zacks2 min read6 sources

Why is Nike stock down in 2026?

Nike (NKE) stock has fallen roughly 40% in 2026 to around $35.75 as analysts forecast a 10% earnings-per-share drop in Thursday's Q1 FY2027 results driven by China demand weakness and tariffs.

Key numbers

Q1 FY2027 EPS Estimate$0.44-10.2% vs. $0.49 a year ago
Q1 FY2027 Revenue Estimate~$11.35B-2.9% YoY vs. $11.7B
Greater China Revenue (Q4 FY2026)$1.30B-17% YoY constant-currency
NKE Stock Price (YTD)~$35.75-40% YTD in 2026
Annual Tariff Cost Headwind$1.5B+50% vs. prior $1B estimate
Options-Implied Post-Earnings Swing8.3%vs. 9.3% historical median

What happened

Nike (NKE) stock has fallen roughly 40% in 2026 to around $35.75 as analysts forecast a 10% earnings-per-share drop in Thursday's Q1 FY2027 results driven by China demand weakness and tariffs. Analysts estimate revenue of about $11.35 billion for the quarter ending August 31, down roughly 3% from a year ago — a third consecutive quarter of year-over-year sales declines. Nike's China sales fell 17% on a currency-neutral basis in the most recent quarter as domestic brands such as Anta take share in the world's second-largest economy. Tariffs have added an estimated $1.5 billion in annual sourcing costs, squeezing the margin recovery CEO Elliott Hill has been pursuing since taking over in October 2024.

Why it matters

Nike stock's 40% drop in 2026 signals that investors are losing confidence in the turnaround faster than results are improving, making Thursday's report the clearest read yet on whether the brand-reset thesis has any near-term earnings floor. China, which made up roughly 13% of revenues last fiscal year, keeps shrinking as shoppers increasingly choose domestic brands — a structural shift that is hard to reverse quickly. Tariff costs are squeezing margins at exactly the moment Nike needs to invest more in marketing and product innovation to win back consumers.

Who this affects

Marketbearish
High impact
Analyst downgrades and heavy short interest weigh on NKE.
Companybearish
High impact
Nike faces margin pressure and accelerating China revenue declines.
Competitorsmixed
Medium impact
Rivals Adidas and On Holding gain share from Nike's weakness.
Industrybearish
Medium impact
Tariffs hit athletic-wear sourcing costs broadly across the sector.

Nike vs Adidas, On Holding

NikeNKE~$53B-40%~21x-2%
AdidasADDYY~$30B-16%~15x+14%
On HoldingONON~$10B-35%~16x+24%

As of 2026-09-28

How we got here

  1. Elliott Hill became CEO, launching brand-reset and wholesale rebuild strategy

  2. Supreme Court ruling triggered $986M IEEPA tariff refund, distorting Q4 FY2026 results

  3. Q4 FY2026 earnings: China fell 17% constant-currency; shares dropped on weak Q1 outlook

  4. Nike removed from S&P 100 after more than $220B market-cap erosion since 2021 peak

  5. Q1 FY2027 earnings due after market close; analysts project 10% EPS decline

What to watch

  • China Q1 revenue: whether the -17% constant-currency Q4 exit rate worsens or stabilizes2026-10-01
  • Management guidance tone for Q2 FY2027 and any early Investor Day preview2026-10-01
  • Elliott Hill's first full financial framework and multi-year targets at Investor Day2026-11-16

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

More briefsAll briefs →