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CarMax KMX stock price chart with technical analysis ahead of Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings on September 29, 2026
Photo: TradingKey

CarMax Stock Falls 10% Before Q2 Earnings as Demand Signals Crack

Yahoo Finance2 min read6 sources

Why is CarMax stock falling?

CarMax (KMX) stock fell 10% over the past month to $57.21 on Friday as analysts widely expect a revenue miss in Tuesday's Q2 earnings report at a stretched 37x valuation.

Key numbers

KMX 30-Day Move$57.21-10% vs S&P 500 +1.3%
Trailing P/E37xvs peers 8x–34x
Q2 Revenue Consensus$6.94B+5.3% YoY est.
Gross Profit Per Vehicle$2,177-$230 YoY (Q1 FY2027)
Richmond Fed Composite-2down from +4 in August
Empire State Index7.6down 13 pts from August

What happened

CarMax (KMX) stock fell 10% over the past month to $57.21 on Friday as analysts widely expect a revenue miss in Tuesday's Q2 earnings report at a stretched 37x valuation. The used-car retailer reports its fiscal second-quarter results — covering June through August 2026 — before markets open September 29, with Wall Street consensus at $6.94 billion in revenue and $0.71 in earnings per share. Three consecutive regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys decelerated sharply in September: the Richmond Fed composite turned negative at -2, and the Empire State index dropped 13 points to 7.6, signaling that consumer demand for big-ticket goods is cracking under high borrowing costs. CarMax beat estimates last quarter, but gross profit per vehicle still slid to $2,177 from $2,407 a year earlier, raising doubts about whether any demand recovery is real.

Why it matters

CarMax is the country's largest used-car retailer, so its results are a direct gauge of how ordinary Americans are managing high car prices and rising auto-loan rates — making Tuesday a high-profile test of consumer health in big-ticket purchases. A revenue miss would confirm that high-rate consumer stress is real and spreading, a reading that could weigh on retail and bank stocks broadly. The last time CarMax missed badly — Q2 fiscal 2026 — the stock lost roughly a third of its value over the following quarter.

Who this affects

Marketbearish
Medium impact
Retail and auto stocks face broader selloff risk on a miss.
Companybearish
High impact
CarMax shareholders face more downside if revenue misses $6.94B.
Competitorsneutral
Low impact
Carvana and AutoNation gain demand-signal clarity from results.
Industrybearish
Medium impact
Used-car dealers face wider margin pressure as high rates bite.

CarMax vs AutoNation, Lithia Motors, Carvana

CarMaxKMX$8.1B+46%37x20x
AutoNationAN$5.5B—8x7x
Lithia MotorsLAD$7.0B-5%11x8x
CarvanaCVNA$70.4B-23%34x30x

As of 2026-09-26

How we got here

  1. CarMax Q1 FY2027 beats estimates; stock fell 3.6% on margin concerns

  2. NY Fed Empire State index drops 13 pts to 7.6 from August four-year high

  3. Richmond Fed composite turns negative at -2; new orders fall to -6

  4. KMX closes at $57.21, down 10% over 30 days, at 37x P/E ahead of results

  5. CarMax Q2 FY2027 results due before market open; consensus $6.94B revenue

What to watch

  • Q2 revenue vs $6.94B consensus; a miss confirms high-rate consumer stress2026-09-29
  • Gross profit per vehicle vs Q1's $2,177; key margin health signal2026-09-29
  • Q3 FY2027 guidance; any signal on holiday-season demand outlookQ4 2026

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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