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Oil Jumps Over 2% as Iran FM Warns of Doomsday War
Why is oil up today?
Crude oil (WTI) jumped over 2% on Monday after Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened a 'doomsday war' against the U.S., reversing three sessions of Hormuz-deal-driven declines from a $92.41 Friday low.
Key numbers
| WTI crude (Fri Sep 25 close) | $92.41/bbl-7.87% on the week |
|---|---|
| Brent crude (Fri Sep 25 close) | $104.32/bbl+0.43% on the week |
| Brent–WTI spread | $11.91/bblhistorically wide — reflects Hormuz shipping risk premium |
| WTI Monday reversal (est.) | ~$94.24/bbl+2%+ from Friday close |
| 2026 global oil supply loss (IEA) | 5.7M bbl/daysteepest annual contraction since COVID-19 |
| U.S. average diesel price (AAA) | $5.53/gal+77% year-over-year |
What happened
Crude oil (WTI) jumped over 2% on Monday after Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened a 'doomsday war' against the U.S., reversing three sessions of Hormuz-deal-driven declines from a $92.41 Friday low. On NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday, Araghchi said Tehran is 'fully prepared for the war to be resumed, even if it comes to a doomsday war,' while leaving diplomatic channels technically open. WTI had dropped from around $100 the prior week as U.S.-Iran indirect talks raised hopes that Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz might soon lift. Trump publicly rejected Iran's proposed seven-day Hormuz reopening plan before Araghchi's Sunday warning extinguished the remaining deal optimism.
Why it matters
Oil is the world's most-traded commodity, and the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman — carries roughly 20% of global oil supply each day; a prolonged blockade means higher fuel prices everywhere. Iran's FM's 'doomsday war' statement signals the seven-month U.S.-Iran conflict may be far from over, forcing traders to keep a large risk premium priced into crude. For ordinary consumers, that means fuel costs that briefly looked set to ease could stay elevated for longer.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedHigh impact
- Global oil markets reprice sharply higher on renewed Hormuz risk.
- CompanybullishMedium impact
- Oil producers gain revenue as WTI reverses Friday's decline.
- CompetitorsbullishMedium impact
- Saudi Arabia and OPEC producers benefit from sustained high prices.
- IndustrymixedHigh impact
- Energy sector rises; aviation and shipping face higher fuel costs.
WTI Crude vs Brent Crude, Natural Gas
| WTI CrudeCL:NYMEX | $92.41/bbl | -2.33% | -7.87% | U.S. oil benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent CrudeBZ:ICE | $104.32/bbl | -2.14% | +0.43% | Int'l oil benchmark |
| Henry Hub Nat GasNG:NYMEX | — | — | — | U.S. natural gas |
As of 2026-09-25
How we got here
U.S.-Iran indirect talks via Qatar at UNGA sidelines; no breakthrough
Brent jumps 3.9% to $103.08 as Iran's president vows not to surrender
Iran submits 7-day Hormuz reopening plan; WTI rises to $94.61
Trump publicly rejects plan; WTI falls -2.33% to $92.41 on deal-hope fade
Araghchi threatens 'doomsday war' on Meet the Press; keeps talks open
What to watch
- U.S. formal response to Iran via Qatari mediators on 7-day plan2026-09-29
- WTI price reaction if Hormuz deal confirmed or collapses entirely2026-10-02
- IEA and EIA monthly reports on 2026 oil supply disruption impact2026-10
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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