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Costco Stock Slides Before Q4 Earnings as Options Price 3.1% Swing

Costco Investor Relations2 min read8 sources

Why is Costco stock falling today?

Costco (COST:NASDAQ) stock has slipped to around $895 ahead of its fiscal Q4 earnings due Thursday, as Wall Street forecasts $94.8B in revenue and a possible special dividend.

Key numbers

Q4 Net Sales (confirmed)$93.9B+11.3% YoY
Revenue Consensus (total)$94.8B+10% YoY
EPS Estimate$6.55+11.5% vs prior-year $5.87
Options Implied Move±3.1–3.5%vs 1.4% historical avg
Cash on Hand (Q3 end)$18.9Brecord high
FY2026 Net Sales$297.3B+10.2% YoY

What happened

Costco (COST:NASDAQ) stock has slipped to around $895 ahead of its fiscal Q4 earnings due Thursday, as Wall Street forecasts $94.8B in revenue and a possible special dividend. The warehouse club's Q4 net sales of $93.9B — its biggest 16-week quarter on record — were already confirmed on September 2, up 11.3% compared with a year ago. Analysts now expect earnings per share of $6.55 for the full quarter, roughly 12% above the same period last year. Costco has built a cash pile of nearly $19B, fueling talk of a rare special dividend on Thursday, similar to the $15-per-share payout it made in January 2024. Options traders are pricing a swing of about 3.1%, more than twice the stock's historical post-earnings average of 1.4%.

Why it matters

Costco is one of America's most closely watched retail barometers because its members' spending habits reflect how middle- and upper-income households are holding up. A strong quarter would reinforce that US consumers are still opening their wallets despite gas prices near $4.37 a gallon and ongoing tariff uncertainty — a positive signal for the broader economy. A special-dividend announcement would be a direct cash reward to shareholders and a signal that management sees no urgent need to put the $19B cash pile to work elsewhere.

Who this affects

Marketbullish
Medium impact
Retail stocks rise if Costco confirms resilient US spending.
Companymixed
Medium impact
Beat or dividend could lift COST shares from 18% below record.
Competitorsneutral
Low impact
BJ's and Sam's Club benefit from strong warehouse-club demand.
Industrybullish
Low impact
Strong comps validate bulk retail's edge over discount rivals.

Costco vs Walmart, Target, BJ's Wholesale

CostcoCOST:NASDAQ$397B+11%41x+10.2%
WalmartWMT:NASDAQ$847B-4%35.6x+6.2%
TargetTGT:NYSE$72B+68%17x+2.0%
BJ's WholesaleBJ:NYSE$12B+11%18.9x+9.1%

As of 2026-09-19

How we got here

  1. Costco pays $15/share special dividend, the third since 2020

  2. Membership fees raised first time in 7 years; $65 Basic, $130 Executive

  3. Q3 FY2026 EPS $4.93 beats consensus; stock touches $1,093 all-time high

  4. August sales confirm Q4 net sales $93.9B, up 11.3% year-over-year

  5. Q4 FY2026 full earnings and potential special dividend decision due

What to watch

  • Special dividend — any cash return announcement is the biggest wildcard2026-09-24
  • EPS vs $6.55 consensus and FY2027 comparable sales guidance2026-09-24
  • Membership renewal rate; any slip below 92.1% signals consumer stress2026-09-24

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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