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Qualcomm headquarters and semiconductor chip
Photo: Foreign Policy Journal

Qualcomm Stock Falls 38% in 2026 as Apple Modem Loss Clouds Amazon AI Deal

24/7 Wall St.2 min read6 sources

Why is Qualcomm stock down in 2026?

Qualcomm (QCOM) stock is down 38% year-to-date to $187.69 as of Tuesday, as Apple's shift to in-house modems erodes an estimated $7B in annual revenue, overshadowing a new $10B Amazon AI chip deal.

Key numbers

QCOM YTD decline-38%price $187.69; mkt cap $200B
Amazon AI chip deal$10Bprojected multi-year; warrants 25M shares at $161.26 strike
Apple revenue impact-50%sequential drop in Sept–Dec 2026 quarter; ~$7B annual risk
Q3 FY2026 revenue$9.95BEPS $2.21 missed $2.22 consensus est.
Automotive revenue+61% YoY$7B annualized run rate
Analyst avg price target$194.4337 analysts; Hold consensus; bull PT $400 (Baird)

What happened

Qualcomm (QCOM) stock is down 38% year-to-date to $187.69 as of Tuesday, as Apple's shift to in-house modems erodes an estimated $7B in annual revenue, overshadowing a new $10B Amazon AI chip deal. Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh set the bear case in January 2026, cutting his rating to neutral and warning that Apple's own-modem plan would remove $2–3B from Qualcomm's top line in fiscal 2026 and 2027. Qualcomm confirmed the damage at its July earnings: Apple-linked revenue will fall about 50% in the September quarter. The Amazon deal, announced September 8, covers custom AI inference chips for data centers, but first revenue is not expected until the December quarter.

Why it matters

Qualcomm's modems have powered every iPhone for years, making Apple one of its biggest customers — losing that business is not a one-quarter blip but a multiyear revenue drain estimated at $7B or more per year. The company is now betting on AI data-center chips, a market where it has no track record and faces Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell already at scale. How fast Qualcomm replaces Apple revenue with data-center sales will largely determine the stock's direction over the next two to three years.

Who this affects

Marketbearish
Medium impact
Semiconductor stocks face pressure from Fed rate expectations.
Companymixed
High impact
Apple revenue loss overshadows promising Amazon data-center deal.
Competitorsbullish
Medium impact
Marvell and Broadcom gain as AI chip demand accelerates.
Industrybearish
Medium impact
Mobile chip makers face growing in-house silicon risk.

Qualcomm vs Broadcom, Marvell, Intel

QualcommQCOM:NASDAQ$200B-38%19.4x$44.1B
BroadcomAVGO:NASDAQ$1.62T—19.0x$89.1B
MarvellMRVL:NASDAQ$194B~+150%40.6x$9.5B
IntelINTC:NASDAQ$420B+84%58.0x$57.0B

As of 2026-09-15

How we got here

  1. Mizuho cuts QCOM to Neutral, citing Apple modem loss; PT $175.

  2. QCOM hits 52-week low of $121.99 in tariff-driven market selloff.

  3. QCOM peaks at 52-week high of $259.92 on AI-hardware enthusiasm.

  4. Q3 earnings: Apple revenue to fall 50% in Sept quarter; stock -4.4%.

  5. Amazon custom AI chip deal announced; QCOM surges about 9%.

What to watch

  • First data-center revenue from Amazon deal expected in December quarter.Q4 2026
  • Apple C2 modem rollout scope and confirmed QCOM iPhone share loss.Q4 2026
  • FOMC September 17 rate decision impact on high-multiple chip valuations.2026-09-17

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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