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Nike athletic shoes displayed in a retail store as Baird downgrades NKE, adidas, and Dick's Sporting Goods on Q4 apparel risks
Photo: Investing.com / Reuters

Nike Stock Sinks 40% to 11-Year Low on Baird Downgrade

Investing.com2 min read6 sources

Why is Nike stock down today?

Nike (NKE) stock fell to $36.80 on Monday, down 40% since January, hitting an 11-year low after Baird cut its rating to Neutral, citing $100 oil and rising rates as a threat to consumer spending.

Key numbers

NKE YTD decline 2026-40%vs Dow Jones +12% YTD
Decline from 2021 all-time high-79%from $179.10 on Nov 5, 2021
Market cap erased since 2021 peak>$200Bfrom ~$264B to ~$55B
Greater China revenue (Q2 FY2026)$1.42B-17% YoY
Gross margin (Q2 FY2026)40.6%-3 pps YoY from tariffs
Baird price target for NKE$44cut from $70 (per [3])

What happened

Nike (NKE) stock fell to $36.80 on Monday, down 40% since January, hitting an 11-year low after Baird cut its rating to Neutral, citing $100 oil and rising rates as a threat to consumer spending. Baird analyst Jonathan Komp simultaneously cut adidas and Dick's Sporting Goods to Neutral, pointing to WTI crude near $100 a barrel and Treasury yields near 5% squeezing lower- and middle-income shoppers. Nike's latest quarter showed Greater China sales fell 17% and tariffs compressed gross margins by 3 percentage points. The stock has erased more than $200 billion in market value since its November 2021 all-time high of $179.10.

Why it matters

Nike's troubles matter because the company is the Dow's worst performer in 2026, a signal that consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending beyond just footwear. With oil near $100 and borrowing costs high, lower-income shoppers who normally trade up to name-brand athletic gear are cutting back, putting the whole sportswear sector under pressure. The athletic-apparel sector is already down 17% on average in 2026, and if spending stays weak through Q4, another difficult season looms.

Who this affects

Marketbearish
High impact
Nike's 11-year low dragged the Dow; retail stocks at risk.
Companybearish
High impact
Shareholders have lost over $200B since Nike's 2021 peak.
Competitorsbearish
Medium impact
adidas and Under Armour face the same consumer-spending headwinds.
Industrybearish
High impact
Sportswear sector median down 17% YTD; Q4 apparel risks intensifying.

Nike vs adidas, Under Armour, Dick's Sporting Goods

NikeNKE$55B+1.0% (per [1])-40%~16x
adidasADS.DE€26B—-20%~13x
Under ArmourUAA$1.3B———
Dick's Sporting GoodsDKS$16B-3.2% (per [market])-34%~13x

As of 2026-09-14

How we got here

  1. Nike hits all-time high of $179.10; market cap near $264B.

  2. Q2 FY2026 earnings: Greater China -17%, gross margin falls 3 pps to 40.6%.

  3. Q4 FY2026 beats estimates, but only due to $986M one-time tariff refund.

  4. Nike set to exit S&P 100 index effective September 21, reflecting market-cap loss.

  5. Baird cuts Nike, adidas, Dick's to Neutral; $100 oil and 5% yields cited.

What to watch

  • Nike's S&P 100 removal September 21 — watch for passive-fund selling pressure.2026-09-21
  • October consumer-spending data — key test of Baird's lower-income squeeze thesis.2026-10-15
  • Nike Q1 FY2027 earnings — first results since Baird turned cautious on the turnaround.Q4 2026

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

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