Stock Market Today: Earnings, Fed and Midterms Collide

Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report as the Fed decides on rates Wednesday, with PCE data due Thursday and midterms on Nov. 3 shaping the stock market today.

Lead

Wall Street enters the busiest week of the third-quarter earnings season with a Federal Reserve decision, fresh inflation data and congressional midterm elections on Nov. 3, eight days away. About one-third of the S&P 500 reports between Monday and Friday, including three AI hyperscalers whose capital spending plans will be read as a verdict on the artificial intelligence build-out.

Equities closed last week on a defensive note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 652.82 points, or 1.23%, on Friday to 52,215.16. The S&P 500 slipped 0.52% to 7,623.68 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.21% to 25,955.34. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.7%, while the Dow gained 0.4%.

What Is Scheduled for the Biggest Earnings Week of Q3?

The calendar runs from an industrial bellwether on Tuesday to the two largest U.S. oil majors on Friday. Thursday is the busiest day, with 202 companies reporting.

• Boeing (BA) reports Tuesday before the open. Consensus is a loss of $0.21 per share, against a loss of $7.47 a year earlier, with investors watching 737 MAX certification milestones and production rates.
• GE Vernova (GEV) reports Wednesday before the open. Consensus is about $4 per share on roughly $12 billion in revenue, up from $1.64 a year ago, driven by power and electrification demand.
• Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) report Wednesday after the close, hours after the Fed. Microsoft is expected to post earnings of $4.71 per share on revenue near $90.6 billion, with Azure growth around 45%. Alphabet is expected to earn $2.94 per share on revenue near $111.6 billion.
• Amazon (AMZN) reports Thursday after the close. Consensus is $2.01 to $2.02 per share on revenue of about $202 billion.
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) report Friday before the open, with consensus earnings of $3.96 and $4.78 per share. Both are sharply above year-ago results of $1.88 and $1.85.

Why Does Big Tech Spending Matter for the Nasdaq?

Capital expenditure is the central question because it links earnings to the AI trade that has driven index returns. Amazon has guided to roughly $220 billion in 2026 capex. Its AWS unit generated $42.2 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 37%, with operating income up 64% to $16.6 billion. Alphabet's Google Cloud revenue rose 82% in the second quarter to $24.8 billion.

Investors are weighing whether cloud growth is accelerating fast enough to justify that spending. The nasdaq amazon listing is among the most closely tracked of the three. A tech sell-off earlier last week showed how sensitive valuations are to any sign that returns on AI infrastructure are lagging outlays. Strong cloud numbers with stable capex guidance would support the rebound case. Higher spending without matching revenue acceleration would test it.

How Will the Fed Rate Decision Land?

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its policy range at 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday. CME FedWatch priced about a 90.6% chance of no change and 9.4% for a 25-basis-point increase as of Oct. 22. Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

The backdrop is unusual. The September increase was the first in three years, and the median official projected one more hike in 2026. That points to a pause in October and a possible move in December. The fed rate path therefore depends on the data that follows the meeting.

Thursday brings third-quarter GDP and September personal consumption expenditures prices. Headline PCE is forecast to rise 0.5% on the month and 3.6% to 3.7% on the year. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is forecast at 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year, up from 3.0%. A reading at or above those levels would keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target. Higher borrowing costs would then keep pressure on long-duration growth stocks and on rate-sensitive consumer credit.

What Does Oil Mean for Exxon and Chevron?

Oil prices are a direct earnings driver and an inflation input. U.S. crude topped $100 a barrel on Friday as fears grew that the U.S.-Iran conflict could flare again. Higher prices lift upstream profits at Exxon Mobil and Chevron, and the consensus figures reflect roughly a doubling of per-share earnings from a year ago. The same prices feed into headline inflation and gasoline costs.

Midterm Elections and Market Positioning

Congressional midterms on Nov. 3 add a layer of event risk just after the earnings window closes. Energy costs, prices and the cost of borrowing are central issues in the campaign. Market reaction to the election usually centers on the balance of power in Congress and the prospects for tax, trade and regulatory legislation. Corporate guidance given this week will be among the last major data points before voters go to the polls.

Outlook

The week concentrates three catalysts in 48 hours: the Fed on Wednesday afternoon, Microsoft and Alphabet that evening, and Amazon with inflation and growth data on Thursday. A hold with a December hike signal, steady cloud growth and contained PCE would stabilize a market that ended last week lower. A hot inflation print or a capex surprise would raise the odds of further rate increases and renewed volatility in AI-linked shares. Exxon and Chevron on Friday will show how far oil above $100 is flowing through to earnings, one week before the midterm elections.