SPCX Stock Slides Toward $135 IPO Price on Second Lockup

SpaceX SPCX stock fell nearly 5% on Aug. 20 as 319 million newly unlocked shares expanded the public float while Trump's newly disclosed personal stake intensifies conflict-of-interest scrutiny.

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Why Is SPCX Stock Falling?

Supply is the primary driver. The August 20 unlock is the second of several scheduled lockup expirations written into SpaceX's IPO terms. The first, on August 6, released approximately 911.5 million shares and initially jolted the stock upward - SPCX gained more than 6% on the day before extending its recovery to nearly 16% across two sessions. But cumulative float expansion has since shifted sentiment: the public float grew from under 5% of total shares outstanding before August 6 to more than 12% following the second tranche. Additional releases are scheduled for September and October, each expected to be approximately 319 million shares, and an estimated 1.3 billion shares are expected to become eligible for trading in early November alongside Q3 2026 earnings results. Elon Musk's approximately 6.4 billion shares remain locked until June 2027, leaving the company's largest insider position as an unresolved overhang for the next year.

What Did Trump's Stake Disclosure Reveal?

A financial disclosure signed August 12 and made public August 22 showed that President Trump purchased between $15,001 and $50,000 of SPCX stock on June 23, 2026 - approximately eleven days after SpaceX completed what was, by most measures, the largest initial public offering in history, raising capital at a $1.77 trillion valuation. The purchase places the sitting president on the shareholder register of a company that ranks among the federal government's most active defense and space contractors, regularly seeking Pentagon launch contracts, satellite deployment approvals, and regulatory clearances from agencies whose leadership his administration controls. The conflict-of-interest statute that applies to most federal employees does not extend to the president. A White House spokesperson stated that Trump's portfolio is managed by an independent third-party institution and that neither the president nor family members can direct specific investment decisions. The SpaceX transaction was one of more than 1,000 stock trades Trump made during June.

The Supply Overhang Calendar

SpaceX's lockup schedule continues with significant tranches through the end of the year. Following the anticipated September and October releases of roughly 319 million shares each, a larger event tied to Q3 earnings is expected to free approximately 1.3 billion shares in early November. By December 2026, roughly 40% of SpaceX's total outstanding shares could be freely tradable. Musk's personal block of approximately 6.4 billion shares - representing the single largest insider position - remains locked until June 2027, a date markets are likely to treat as a structural ceiling well in advance.

Market Reaction

SPCX stock touched lows near $130 on August 20 before a partial recovery, leaving shares at approximately $136 in recent sessions and just above the $135 IPO floor. The stock's 52-week range spans $104.83 to $225.64. Wall Street consensus sits at a Moderate Buy with an average price target of approximately $228.59, implying more than 60% upside from current levels, reflecting long-term confidence in SpaceX's Pentagon contract pipeline and commercial launch dominance despite near-term supply headwinds. The August 6 experience - where the market absorbed the larger first tranche without a sustained breakdown - demonstrated the stock can withstand unlock pressure under favorable demand conditions, though the cumulative float expansion now presents a different arithmetic.

How to Buy SpaceX Stock

Outlook

SpaceX faces a sustained period of elevated share supply as successive lockup tranches expire through late 2026. SPCX stock's proximity to the $135 IPO price establishes a broadly watched technical support level, and the stock's 52-week low near $104 marks the lower boundary traders are monitoring for systemic breakdown. The Trump disclosure introduces a governance dimension that is unlikely to fade before the next round of SpaceX contract awards or regulatory decisions enters the public record, and could intensify if administration decisions are seen to intersect with the company's commercial interests. September's next lockup expiration will test whether accumulated institutional demand can again absorb fresh supply or whether the drawdown toward the IPO floor deepens.