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Amazon and Intel report third-quarter results after the close on October 29, with options pricing moves of about 7% and 9% as investors test AI spending and returns.
- Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) report after the close on Oct. 29, with calls at 5:00 PM ET.
- Amazon's 2026 capex plan stands at $220B, up from $200B; options imply a move of about 7.4%.
- Options imply a move of roughly 9% in Intel, which guided Q3 revenue of $15.8B to $16.8B.
Lead
Amazon and Intel report third-quarter results after the market close on Thursday, October 29. The two reports give investors a read on both ends of the AI build-out: the cloud operator spending the money and the chipmaker trying to win a share of it. The conference calls for both companies begin at 5:00 PM ET.Options markets price a move of about 7.4% in either direction for Amazon, and roughly 9% for Intel. The gap shows how much more uncertainty surrounds Intel's turnaround than Amazon's cloud growth story.
What Is Amazon Expected to Report?
Wall Street consensus calls for Amazon revenue of about $202.2B, up roughly 12% from a year earlier, and earnings of about $2.01 per share. Operating income is expected in a range of $22.5B to $26.5B.
The focus for AWS, Amazon's cloud unit, is whether growth can return above 40%. AWS revenue rose 37% to $42.2B in the second quarter, its fastest pace since 2021 and the fifth straight quarter of acceleration. Consensus for the third quarter is revenue near $45.4B, up about 37.5% to 38%. AWS also reported $496B in signed contracts not yet delivered as of June, more than double the year before.
Why Is Amazon's $220B Capex Plan Under Scrutiny?
Amazon's capital spending plan matters because it has raised the 2026 figure to about $220B from $200B while free cash flow has weakened. Trailing free cash flow turned negative at about $7.6B.
The new figure implies roughly $61.8B of spending per quarter in the second half. That is about 17% above the $53.1B spent in the second quarter. For the nasdaq amazon listing, the question is whether AWS revenue and backlog grow fast enough to justify a spending curve that is steeper than the revenue curve. Advertising monetization and retail margins will also be watched as offsets.
Amazon's plan sits within a wider surge. Combined 2026 capital spending by the largest US cloud providers is estimated to exceed $700B, which keeps ai stocks sensitive to any change in guidance from a single company.
How Much Is Intel Expected to Move?
Intel's implied move of roughly 9% reflects the weight of its guidance and its foundry progress. Options markets have priced a swing of about 9.4% in some estimates, well above the 5.5% to 7.7% priced for Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon this earnings season.
Intel guided third-quarter revenue of $15.8B to $16.8B, adjusted earnings of $0.38 per share and an adjusted gross margin of about 42%. Consensus sits slightly higher, at revenue of about $16.5B, up around 21% year over year, and earnings of about $0.41 per share.
What Will Drive Intel's Results?
The main driver is the data center and AI segment, where revenue rose 59% in the second quarter to about $6.3B. Stronger server demand and improved chip supply late in the quarter are expected to support a result at or above guidance.
Offsets are weaker PC demand and rising memory and substrate costs, which could limit the size of any beat. Investors will also look for updates on the 18A manufacturing process and external foundry customers, since the margin recovery depends on factory utilization as much as on product demand.
Strategic Context
The two reports are linked. Amazon's spending is a source of demand for server processors and custom silicon, while Intel is competing for a place in that supply chain. A strong AWS print and a higher capex outlook would support the demand case for chipmakers. A cautious tone on spending efficiency would weigh on the group, including Intel.
Reaction is likely to turn on guidance rather than the quarter itself. For Amazon, the fourth-quarter outlook and any change to 2026 and 2027 capital spending will carry the most weight. For Intel, fourth-quarter revenue and gross margin guidance will matter more than the third-quarter beat or miss.
Outlook
Amazon enters the report with a $220B spending plan, accelerating AWS growth and negative trailing free cash flow. Intel enters with guidance that consensus expects it to meet and a larger options-implied move than any of its large-cap peers. Both stocks are positioned for sharp after-hours reactions, and both outcomes will shape how the market values AI infrastructure spending into 2027.
Mentioned tickers: AMZN, INTC, MSFT, GOOG
