Pomegra
Expedia (EXPE), HubSpot (HUBS) and MercadoLibre (MELI) fell 7% to 9% in extended trading on weak guidance and a profit miss despite solid third-quarter results.
- Expedia fell 7% to 9% after a Q4 revenue forecast below consensus; HubSpot fell about 8%; MercadoLibre slid about 7%.
- Expedia and HubSpot beat third-quarter estimates and raised full-year targets, but their fourth-quarter outlooks fell short.
- MercadoLibre missed on earnings per share as heavier investment compressed its operating margin to 6.3%.
Lead
Three growth-oriented companies led after-hours losses in the stock market today after Wednesday's earnings reports. In each case, the market focused on the forward outlook or on profitability rather than headline sales. Expedia Group fell 7% to 9% after forecasting fourth-quarter revenue of $3.69 billion to $3.75 billion, a midpoint just under the $3.74 billion consensus. HubSpot dropped more than 8% on light fourth-quarter guidance. MercadoLibre slid about 7% after adjusted earnings of $8.83 per share missed the consensus of roughly $9.30.
What Happened to Expedia After Hours?
Expedia shares fell sharply in extended trading on November 4 because management guided fourth-quarter revenue below expectations and tied the shortfall to the Middle East conflict and unrest in Europe. Executives said the disruption is reducing demand and hurting long-haul routes to and from those regions. The US midterm elections were also cited as a factor.
The third-quarter figures were strong. Revenue reached $4.94 billion against an estimate of $4.74 billion, and adjusted earnings were $9.39 per share against $8.89 expected. Gross bookings rose 11% to a record of about $31 billion, and revenue grew 12%. Demand was strongest among affluent travelers, who prioritized trips despite elevated airfares.
Expedia also raised its full-year targets. Gross bookings are now forecast at $131.4 billion to $131.9 billion, up from $129.5 billion to $130.8 billion. Revenue is forecast at $16.37 billion to $16.43 billion, up from $16.05 billion to $16.22 billion. The stock reaction shows investors are pricing the near-term geopolitical drag more heavily than the upgraded annual figures.
Why Did HubSpot Fall Despite a Beat?
HubSpot fell because its fourth-quarter guidance undershot expectations even though third-quarter results exceeded them. The software company reported adjusted earnings of $3.81 per share against a $3.27 consensus. Revenue rose 17% to $947.6 million, ahead of the $925.3 million estimate.
The fourth-quarter outlook was the problem. HubSpot guided adjusted earnings of $3.85 to $3.87 per share and revenue of $945 million to $947 million. The consensus was $4.09 and $964.9 million. That revenue range implies little sequential growth from the third quarter. Full-year adjusted earnings guidance of $13.59 to $13.61 per share topped the $13.30 consensus, but it did not offset the near-term shortfall.
The reaction follows October downgrades from four brokerages. Those cited execution risk, uneven demand among small and mid-sized businesses, and the early stage of HubSpot's AI monetization. Weak guidance reinforced those concerns, and the sell-off came with the stock already under pressure.
What Went Wrong at MercadoLibre?
MercadoLibre slid because profit missed even as sales beat. Revenue of $10.75 billion topped the $10.69 billion estimate, but adjusted earnings of $8.83 per share trailed the consensus. Net income was $448 million against an estimate of $473 million.
Margins were the weak point. Income from operations was $676 million, a 6.3% margin, down from 7.0% in the prior quarter. Net shipping margin, measured against gross merchandise volume, has fallen by about 200 basis points since the first quarter of 2025. The Latin American e-commerce and fintech group has been spending heavily on logistics, credit and free-shipping thresholds to defend share. Investors are weighing whether that spending will translate into higher profitability.
Market Context
The three moves share a pattern. Each company met or beat consensus on current-quarter sales, yet shares fell on what comes next or on what it cost to get there. After a period of elevated valuations in growth stocks, the tolerance for guidance that merely meets expectations has narrowed.
Travel is the most exposed to geopolitical shocks, because bookings respond quickly to security conditions and routing disruptions. Software and marketplace names are more sensitive to margin trajectory and customer spending among smaller businesses.
Outlook
The next test comes when the three stocks open on Thursday and show whether the after-hours losses hold. For Expedia, the fourth-quarter guide sets a low bar that depends on how the Middle East and Europe situations evolve. HubSpot must show that its AI products can lift growth in a segment where small-business demand is uneven. MercadoLibre needs to show that rising investment leads to margin recovery in coming quarters.
