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Oil Markets in Shock as Houthis Open New Front Against Israel
Brent crude futures surged as much as 3.7% to a session high of $116.75 a barrel on Monday morning, after settling 4.2% higher in the previous Friday session. The global benchmark is now on track to close March with a record monthly rise of over 55%, a pace never before recorded in commodity market history. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed 3.14% to $102.77 a barrel after posting a 5.5% gain in the prior session.The catalyst: Yemen's Houthis — the Iranian-aligned militant group — launched their first direct missile attacks on Israel since the onset of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran on February 28. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree confirmed a barrage of ballistic missiles struck what the group described as sensitive Israeli military targets, pledging continued operations until strikes on Iran and its proxy forces in Lebanon cease.
Trump Threats Amplify Market Fear Premium
President Donald Trump dramatically escalated rhetoric on Monday, warning on social media that the United States would destroy Iran's oil wells, power plants, and Kharg Island unless Tehran immediately reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Trump separately told the Financial Times that his preferred outcome was to "take the oil" from Iran — drawing an explicit parallel to U.S. actions in Venezuela, where Washington effectively seized control of the country's energy sector following the capture of Nicolás Maduro.
Kharg Island handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. A direct strike or seizure of the facility would represent the most significant disruption to global oil supply infrastructure in decades. Markets immediately priced in the elevated threat, with energy sector volatility indices spiking to their highest readings since 2020.Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb: The Twin Chokepoints
The broader fear gripping energy markets centers on two of the world's most critical maritime shipping lanes. The Strait of Hormuz, currently blockaded amid the active conflict, channels roughly 20% of global oil trade. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait — linking the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and onward to the Suez Canal — carries an estimated 4 to 5 million barrels per day.
Michael Haigh, global head of fixed income and commodities research at Société Générale, told CNBC that simultaneous disruption across both choke points could drive prices into entirely new territory. "Moving into April, if we have another four million barrels taken out of the Red Sea, on top of what we already have, then the oil price is much, much higher," Haigh stated. Analysts at Société Générale previously warned in a note that a prolonged Middle East supply disruption could push Brent crude as high as $150 per barrel in April.
CME Futures Curve Signals Sustained Premium
The CME Group Brent futures curve as of March 30 shows a sharp backwardation structure, with the May 2026 contract settling at $112.57, June at $105.32, and July at $98.73 — reflecting market expectations of a gradual normalization, but one that prices in prolonged geopolitical risk premium through the third quarter. WTI's May contract hovered near $101.85, up 2.2% on the day, with the spread between benchmarks widening modestly to approximately $13.
"Higher for Longer" Oil Becomes Baseline Scenario
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, warned Monday that global equity markets are beginning to fully discount a "higher-for-longer" oil price environment, with compounding implications for inflation, monetary policy, and corporate earnings. The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, he noted, significantly raises recession risk across import-dependent economies.
David Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, highlighted the cascading risk of a U.S. move against Kharg Island, warning it would choke off Iran's dollar revenue streams while potentially triggering Tehran to retaliate against critical Gulf infrastructure — including Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which moves approximately 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, had previously forecast Brent to remain above $95 per barrel through May before falling below $80 in the third quarter — a projection now considered deeply optimistic given the pace of escalation.
Energy Stocks and Broader Market Impact
Wall Street futures pointed higher Monday morning as some investors positioned defensively across energy equities, even as the broader geopolitical backdrop unsettled risk assets. Libya's Sharara oilfield — briefly offline — was expected to resume normal output within 48 hours, providing only marginal relief to a market dominated by Middle East conflict premium.India relaxed its domestic kerosene distribution rules to mitigate energy supply pressures, while LPG tankers bound for Indian ports cleared the Strait of Hormuz under escort, signaling continued — if fragile — transit activity through the contested waterway.
The oil market enters April facing its most acute supply-security crisis in a generation, with benchmark prices more than 50% above where they opened the month, and no diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict yet in sight.---
Mentioned tickers: `BNO, USO, UCO, XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, HAL, EOG, VLO, MPC, PSX, BP, SHEL, TTE`
