Bitcoin Falls to $74K as Hot CPI, ETF Outflows Hit

Bitcoin slipped back to about $74,000 after briefly topping $75,000, as hot October inflation and spot ETF outflows pushed Fed rate-hike odds higher.

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What Did the October Inflation Report Show?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Nov. 10 that the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, above the 0.3% forecast. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% against an expected 0.2%.

Energy prices rose 0.7%, with gasoline up 1%. Food rose 0.5%, and transportation services jumped 0.8%. Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the headline increase. Electricity rose 0.9%, a move tied to demand from AI infrastructure.

The agency did not publish an annual inflation rate. The government shutdown in October 2025 interrupted data collection and left no comparable base month.

Why Did Bitcoin React This Way?

Bitcoin fell because the report raised the odds that the federal reserve will tighten policy in December, which reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets. The probability of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8-9 meeting rose to about 90% after the release. The chance of a half-point move rose from near zero to 13.6%.

Treasury yields climbed in step. The two-year yield rose about 19 basis points to 4.74%. The 10-year yield approached 4.99%, and the 30-year reached 5.35%. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding bitcoin and weigh on leveraged positions.

Derivatives amplified the move. Crypto futures liquidations rose 288% to $725 million over 24 hours. Bitcoin accounted for $200.5 million of that total, and about 85% of those were long positions. Ether liquidations were $253 million.

How Large Are the Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows?

US spot bitcoin ETFs have lost roughly $1.6 billion in November, and outflows extended to a fourth consecutive session on Nov. 10. Daily redemptions were $430 million on Thursday, $412 million on Friday, $201 million on Monday and $95 million on Tuesday. Totals vary slightly across data providers.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) dominates the selling. It lost $78 million on Tuesday, its eighth straight session of redemptions. In the week of Nov. 2-6, IBIT accounted for about $1.21 billion of the $1.28 billion in net weekly outflows, or roughly 94%.

The slowing pace of daily outflows is the one offsetting signal. Redemptions have narrowed from the early-week peak, though net flows remain negative. Spot bitcoin ETFs are also negative for 2026, with year-to-date outflows above $1 billion.

Market Reaction Across Assets

Bitcoin did not join the equity rebound. Nasdaq-100 futures rose 1.7% on Wednesday after CoreWeave (CRWV) reported results ahead of expectations. Stock funds took all 17 spots among the top US-listed ETFs by five-session inflows, a sign that fund investors rotated toward equities during the pullback.

Stocks and bonds sold off on Tuesday after the CPI release. Investors weighed a policy path that now includes a rate increase instead of cuts.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin?

The next test for bitcoin is whether ETF redemptions keep slowing and whether $72,700 holds as support. A clear break below that level would expose positions that were built during the recent run toward $75,000.

The next major macro catalysts are the Dec. 8-9 Fed meeting and the November CPI report due Dec. 10. A softer core reading would reduce hike odds and ease pressure on risk assets. Another 0.3% core print would raise the odds of a larger move and keep yields elevated.

Retail investors asking how to start investing in crypto are entering a market where flows are now driven by macro rate expectations more than by crypto-specific news. Spot ETFs have become a main channel for institutional exposure, which ties bitcoin more closely to Treasury yields and equity-fund flows.

Outlook

Bitcoin has retreated to about $74,000 as a 0.4% headline and 0.3% core CPI reading raised December hike odds to about 90%. ETF outflows are slowing but remain negative, and leveraged longs have been flushed. The Dec. 8-9 Fed meeting and the Dec. 10 CPI release are the next catalysts.