Pomegra
Economy
MAJOR
Oct 216 min read
10-Year Treasury Yield Holds at 5.1% Before Fed Meeting
The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 5.1%, off its 5.35% October peak, as markets price a 12-17% chance of a Fed hike on Oct. 27-28 and a move in December.
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Economy
MAJOR
Oct 206 min read
10-Year Treasury Yield at 5.08% as Fed Rate Decision Nears
The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 5.08% as the Fed meets Oct. 27-28, and futures price a 15% chance of a hike under Chair Warsh, who won't rule one out.
Economy
SEISMIC
Sep 287 min read
Bond Rout Deepens as 10-Year Yield Eyes 6%
Ten-year Treasury yields approach 6% as Mideast oil fears reignite inflation, dragging emerging market stocks to four consecutive sessions of losses.
Markets
SEISMIC
Sep 246 min read
US 30-Year Yield Hits 5.43%, a 22-Year High
The 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.43%, a 22-year high, as oil at $103 per barrel stoked fresh inflation fears in a synchronized global bond selloff.
Economy
SEISMIC
Sep 226 min read
Fed Dot Plot Seals December Hike, Yields at 20-Year Highs
Fed's September dot plot confirms a December hike, with futures pricing 4.2% by year-end and 4.7% by late 2027 as 10-year Treasury yields close in on 20-year highs.
Markets
MAJOR
Sep 176 min read
30-Year Yield Presses Toward 19-Year Highs After Fed Hike
The 30-year Treasury yield retests its 5.34% August high as the Fed's unanimous hike and Warsh's hawkish dot plot extend the worst long-end selloff since 2006.
Markets
SEISMIC
Aug 266 min read
30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.34%, 19-Year High
U.S. 30-year yields hit a 19-year high of 5.34%, as fiscal deficit fears, hyperscaler debt supply, and inflation above 3% drove a historic bond selloff.
Economy
MAJOR
Aug 216 min read
30-Year Yield Returns to 5.22%, Erasing Buyback Gains
The 30-year Treasury yield snapped back to 5.22% Thursday, reversing the Treasury buyback rally as U.S. fiscal pressures and inflation sustain long-end rate pressure.
Markets
MAJOR
Aug 186 min read
Treasury Bonds Crack as TLT Nears 2004 Price Low
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell to $81.68 on Aug. 17, its weakest close since June 2004, as the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.29% - the highest level since 2007.
Markets
MAJOR
Aug 157 min read
Hartnett: National Debt Nears $40T Threatens Equity Rally
BofA's Michael Hartnett warns the surging national debt clock and stubborn 5% long-bond yields are building into a structural brake on equity markets.
Economy
NOTABLE
Aug 146 min read
July CPI Report: 3.4% Keeps Fed on Hold in September
The July 2026 CPI report showed annual inflation easing to 3.4% as grocery prices moderated and a flat PPI cleared the path for a Fed hold in September.
Economy
NOTABLE
Aug 135 min read
July CPI Print Holds at 3.4%, September Hold Trade Intact
July's consumer price index matched consensus on every measure, with headline inflation at 3.4% YoY and core at 2.5%, lifting the September hold probability to 61.9% and easing Treasury yields.
Markets
NOTABLE
Aug 127 min read
Dollar Holds as Soft July CPI Fails to Kill September Hike
A cooler-than-forecast U.S. inflation print on August 12 left fed funds futures adrift in a 50/50 deadlock, denying dollar bears the clean break they needed to exit dollar bills long before the…
Economy
MAJOR
Aug 126 min read
U.S. CPI-U Holds at 3.4% Annual Rate in July 2026
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July 2026 consumer prices were unchanged from June on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, as the headline annual inflation rate held steady at 3.4%, keeping…
Economy
NOTABLE
Aug 126 min read
July CPI: Headline Turns Negative, Core Holds at 2.6%
July CPI report finds headline consumer prices turning negative month-over-month as core holds near 2.6%, pointing to steady disinflation without economic stress.
Economy
MAJOR
Aug 126 min read
July CPI Report: Last Inflation Read Before September Fed Decision
The July consumer price index lands Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET — economists forecast a slight easing to 3.4% annually — while markets price a 44% probability of a September rate hike against a…
Markets
MAJOR
Aug 106 min read
Treasury Yields Near Monthly High as Oil Fans CPI Fears
The 10-year yield climbed to a monthly high near 4.70% and the 2-year hit 4.24% Monday as rising crude oil prices reignited inflation concerns days before Wednesday's pivotal CPI report.
Economy
MAJOR
Aug 106 min read
July CPI Report: Tariff Goods Surge Tests Fed's Hold
Wednesday's July CPI report is forecast to show core inflation at a six-month high as tariff-driven goods costs accelerate and grocery prices stay elevated.
Geopolitics
SEISMIC
Aug 96 min read
Vance: Tehran Denies Strait of Hormuz Tolling Plans
Vance discloses Iran privately denied plans to toll the Strait of Hormuz, even as Tehran's security chief issued sweeping conditions for reopening the waterway.
Economy
SEISMIC
Aug 86 min read
US July Payrolls: 23,000 Jobs Lost in Shock NFP Miss
The US economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, shattering expectations of an 83,000-job gain in the worst non-farm payrolls miss in years, as the participation rate slipped to a five-year low of 61.4%.
Markets
MAJOR
Aug 76 min read
Fed Rate Odds Tumble After Surprise July Jobs Loss
A surprise 23,000-job loss in July sent fed rate odds for September tumbling from 54% to 44%, challenging the BofA analyst three-hike forecast for 2026.
Economy
MAJOR
Aug 76 min read
U.S. July Jobs Report: Payrolls Fall 23,000
The July jobs report delivered the sharpest labor market miss in years, as nonfarm payrolls shed 23,000 jobs, June was gutted by revisions, and a five-year low in participation masked a falling…
Economy
MAJOR
Aug 65 min read
ADP Report: U.S. Added Just 44,000 Jobs in July
July's ADP report showed private payrolls at 44,000, missing the 75,000 consensus — a weak hiring sign two days before Friday's official nonfarm payrolls.
Economy
MAJOR
Aug 46 min read
U.S. Data Week 2026: JOLTS, ADP, and the Jobs Report
A labor-market data barrage runs Tuesday through Friday, with JOLTS job openings, ADP private payrolls, ISM Services, and the July nonfarm payrolls report each arriving in sequence — testing…
Economy
MAJOR
Aug 37 min read
August 7 Jobs Report: Markets Brace for July Payrolls
July employment data arrives Friday amid a fractured Fed, slowing hiring momentum, and markets pricing an 80% chance of a September rate hike.
Markets
Aug 26 min read
PGIM Sees Three Sequential Fed Hikes Starting September
PGIM's Katharine Neiss, speaking on Bloomberg TV, called Chair Warsh's presser weaker than expected and forecast three sequential Fed hikes from September.
Markets
Aug 17 min read
Treasury Long-Bond Surge: Deficits and Real Rates 2026
The 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.28% as sticky real rates and a projected $2 trillion U.S. fiscal deficit push long-end borrowing costs to their highest levels in nearly two decades.
Markets
Aug 16 min read
US Treasury Yields Hit 19-Year Highs on Oil Surge
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.738%, its highest since January 2025, while the 30-year breached 5.26% — a level absent from any bond trading desk since 2007 — as $100 oil reignited inflation…
Markets
Jul 306 min read
S&P Futures Rally as 30-Year Yield Hits 2007 High
U.S. futures turned positive July 30 as softer PCE inflation and Microsoft's earnings beat overshadowed weak GDP, while Treasury yields climbed to multi-decade highs.
Economy
Jul 306 min read
June PCE 2026: Headline 3.7%, Core 3.3%, Energy Drops
The June Personal Consumption Expenditures report met expectations, with headline inflation at 3.7% and core at 3.3%, as a sharp fall in gas station prices provided notable relief to consumers.