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US Producer Prices Set to Rise 6.6% as Rate-Hike Odds Build
What are economists expecting from October producer prices?
US producer prices are expected to rise about 6.6% from a year earlier in October's report due Friday, as energy costs from the Middle East conflict keep rate-hike odds high.
Key numbers
| October PPI, yearly (forecast) | 6.6%vs 6.3% in September |
|---|---|
| October PPI, monthly (forecast) | 0.4%vs 1.3% in September |
| Core PPI, monthly (forecast) | 0.3%vs 0.7% in September |
| December hike odds | 90–100%quarter-point; sources differ, 90% on Nov 11 [2], 100% on Nov 12 [1] |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5.125%+13 basis points, latest session |
What happened
US producer prices are expected to rise about 6.6% from a year earlier in October's report due Friday, as energy costs from the Middle East conflict keep rate-hike odds high. Producer prices track what businesses pay to make goods, so they often feed into store prices later. September's reading jumped 6.3% from a year earlier, driven by a 10.8% surge in energy costs. Economists expect the monthly rise to cool to 0.4% from 1.3%, but the yearly rate still climbs because prices barely moved a year ago. Traders see a December Fed rate hike as nearly certain.
Why it matters
US producer prices matter because they show whether cost pressure from fuel and supply disruptions is still building before it reaches shoppers. A hotter reading would give the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) more reason to keep raising borrowing rates, and a larger half-point December hike remains possible. Higher rates make mortgages and loans costlier and can weigh on stock prices.
Who this affects
- MarketbearishHigh impact
- Investors face swings; hot data adds rate-hike pressure.
- CompanybearishMedium impact
- US firms face higher input costs and borrowing costs.
- CompetitorsbearishLow impact
- Japan and China also face faster factory-price inflation.
- IndustrymixedMedium impact
- Transport and energy-heavy firms pay more; energy producers gain.
US Producer Prices vs Japan, China
| United States— | 6.6% (forecast) | 6.3% | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan— | 7.1% | 6.8% | Oct |
| China— | 5.7% | 5.0% | Oct |
As of 2026-11-12
How we got here
US September producer prices rise 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year.
China's October factory prices rise 5.7% from a year earlier, up from 5%.
US October consumer prices rise 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast, lifting Fed hike bets.
Japan's October wholesale prices rise 7.1% year on year, beating the 6.5% forecast.
US October producer prices due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
What to watch
- Monthly rise above 0.6% or yearly rise above 7% would count as an upside surprise.2026-11-13
- Fed December meeting, where a quarter-point rate hike is widely expected.2026-12-09
- Bank of Japan meeting, where a rate hike to 1.5% is expected.2026-12-18
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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