Pomegra10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.99% on Rate-Hike Odds
Why is the 10-year Treasury yield up today?
The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) rose about 13 basis points to 4.99% on Tuesday after October core CPI hit 0.3% and Fed Governor Waller put a half-point December hike on the table.
Key numbers
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.992%+13 bp on the day |
|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury yield | 4.736%+18 bp on the day |
| Core CPI, October (monthly) | 0.3%vs 0.2% expected |
| Headline CPI, October (monthly) | 0.4%vs 0.3% expected |
| Odds of half-point Dec. hike | 13.6%from near 0% (per [2]) |
What happened
The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) rose about 13 basis points to 4.99% on Tuesday after October core CPI hit 0.3% and Fed Governor Waller put a half-point December hike on the table. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. Waller said in London that a bigger move should be considered if core prices (inflation without food and energy) rose 0.3% or more. Core prices rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% economists expected, and overall prices rose 0.4%. Traders now treat a quarter-point hike on December 8–9 as certain, with about a 14% chance of a half-point hike, up from near zero (per).
Why it matters
The 10-year Treasury yield matters because it is the benchmark for many everyday borrowing costs, including mortgages. A yield near 5% means the US government pays more to borrow, and loans for homes and businesses can get pricier. Core prices are running at about 3.7% a year over the past three months, so inflation is still stubborn. That keeps more Fed rate hikes in play.
Who this affects
- MarketbearishMedium impact
- Stocks slipped and bond prices fell as yields climbed.
- CompanybearishMedium impact
- Existing bondholders lose value as yields rise and prices fall.
- CompetitorsmixedLow impact
- UK gilt yields sit near 5.1%; German Bund yields near 3.25%.
- IndustrybearishMedium impact
- Homebuilders and mortgage borrowers face higher financing costs; homebuilder shares fell.
US 10-Year Treasury vs German Bund, UK Gilt, Japan JGB
| US Treasury^TNX | 4.99% | Fed: 25 bp hike priced, 50 bp considered |
|---|---|---|
| German Bund— | 3.25% | ECB's Lane backs hike |
| UK Gilt— | 5.12% | BoE hike possible |
| Japan JGB— | 2.68% | BoJ hike possible |
As of 2026-11-10
How we got here
October jobs report: 165,000 jobs added versus 59,000 expected, lifting rate-hike bets.
10-year yield edges up to about 4.88% as investors await CPI.
Waller backs a December hike and says 50 basis points should be considered if core CPI is 0.3%+.
Core CPI comes in at 0.3%; 10-year yield climbs to 4.99%.
What to watch
- Producer price index (wholesale inflation) for October, due Friday.2026-11-13
- Fed meeting where a quarter-point or half-point hike is decided.2026-12-08
- ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan December meetings, which also signaled possible hikes.December 2026
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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