PomegraS&P 500 Falls 0.7% as December Fed Hike Odds Hit 84%
Why is the S&P 500 down today?
S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.7% to about 7,500 midday Tuesday after October inflation rose 0.4%, hotter than expected, lifting December Fed rate-hike odds to about 84%.
Key numbers
| October CPI (monthly) | +0.4%vs 0.3% expected; Sept +0.6% |
|---|---|
| Core CPI (monthly) | +0.3%vs 0.2% expected [2] |
| Dec 25bp hike odds | 84%15% for 50bp; 85% per [4] |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.94%+7 bp; later quote ~4.99% per [3] |
| S&P 500 | 7,500.02-0.66% (midday) |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,052.76-0.79% (midday) |
What happened
S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.7% to about 7,500 midday Tuesday after October inflation rose 0.4%, hotter than expected, lifting December Fed rate-hike odds to about 84%. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October versus 0.3% expected, and prices excluding food and energy (core) rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said a half-point hike should be considered if core prices rose about 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield, what the government pays to borrow for ten years, rose to about 4.94%.
Why it matters
The S&P 500 slipped because hotter inflation makes the Federal Reserve more likely to raise interest rates again in December. Higher rates make borrowing, such as mortgages and credit cards, more expensive and can slow the economy. They also make shares less appealing next to safer government bonds that now pay almost 5%. The government did not publish a yearly inflation rate because of a 2025 data gap.
Who this affects
- MarketbearishMedium impact
- Stock and bond holders hit by rising rate worries.
- CompanybearishLow impact
- Large US companies face costlier borrowing; negative for shareholders.
- CompetitorsbearishLow impact
- Nasdaq fell more than the Dow; tech hit harder.
- IndustrymixedLow impact
- Borrowers face higher costs; savers earn higher yields.
S&P 500 vs Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones
| S&P 500SPX | 7,500.02 | -0.66% | -49.92 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq CompositeIXIC | 25,052.76 | -0.79% | -200.38 |
| Dow JonesDJI | 52,078.22 | -0.59% | -311.53 |
As of 2026-11-10T15:57:00Z
How we got here
BLS releases October CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET: prices +0.4%, core +0.3%.
Waller backs considering a half-point December hike; 10-year yield rises about 7 basis points to 4.94%.
S&P 500 down 0.66%, Nasdaq down 0.79% midday; traders price 84% odds of a quarter-point hike.
What to watch
- Fed's December meeting: quarter-point or half-point hike, priced at about 85% versus 15%.December 2026
- November CPI report, to show whether monthly price gains stay at 0.3% or higher.December 2026
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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