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Fed Rate Hike Odds Hit 78% as Logan Urges More Hikes
Why did Fed rate hike odds jump to 78%?
Fed rate hike odds for December rose to 78% on Friday from 67% a day earlier, as a strong jobs report backed Dallas Fed official Lorie Logan's call for at least two more hikes.
Key numbers
| Fed rate range | 3.75%–4.00%Logan wants 2 more 25bp hikes |
|---|---|
| December hike odds | 78%from 67% a day earlier; Polymarket shows ~77% [4] |
| October jobs added | 165,000more than double forecasts |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.86–4.87%rose as hike bets firmed |
| US dollar index | 102.30+0.74% on Friday (per [4]) |
What happened
Fed rate hike odds for December rose to 78% on Friday from 67% a day earlier, as a strong jobs report backed Dallas Fed official Lorie Logan's call for at least two more hikes. On October 30, Logan said the Fed's main interest rate, now 3.75%–4.00%, needs at least two more quarter-point increases before the Fed pauses. Two days earlier, the Fed had voted 10–2 to leave rates unchanged. Then October's jobs report showed employers added 165,000 workers, more than double what economists expected.
Why it matters
The Federal Reserve is on track to keep raising interest rates, which makes borrowing for homes, cars and credit cards more expensive. Logan wants at least two more quarter-point increases before any pause, so a December hike may not be the last. The Fed is pushing because inflation is still above its 2% goal.
Who this affects
- MarketbearishMedium impact
- Borrowing costs and the dollar rise; mixed for stocks.
- CompanyneutralMedium impact
- Fed leaders push to keep tightening until inflation cools.
- CompetitorsneutralLow impact
- Bank of England raised rates to 4%; ECB, BoJ held.
- IndustrymixedMedium impact
- Borrowers face higher loan costs; savers may earn more.
Federal Reserve vs European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan
| Federal Reserve | 3.75%–4.00% | Held in Oct (hiked Sep) | Dec hike, ~78% odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| European Central Bank | 2.50% (deposit) | Held in Oct (hiked Sep) | — |
| Bank of England | 4.00% | +0.25 pt on Nov 5 | — |
| Bank of Japan | 1.25% | Held in Oct (hiked Sep) | — |
As of 2026-11-10
How we got here
Fed raises rates by 0.25 points to 3.75%–4.00%.
Fed votes 10–2 to hold rates steady.
Logan says Fed needs at least two more 25-basis-point hikes before pausing.
Strong jobs report lifts December hike odds to 78%.
What to watch
- Fed officials Waller, Logan, Bowman and Schmid speak today; Treasury also auctions 10-year notes.2026-11-10
- Fed decision on a possible quarter-point hike at its December 8–9 meeting.2026-12-09
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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