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October CPI Due Tuesday as Fed Hike Odds Top 75%
What do economists expect from the October CPI report?
The US October CPI report, due Tuesday, is expected to show prices up 0.3% in the month, a cooling from September's 0.6%, and traders put a December Fed rate hike near 78%.
Key numbers
| Expected monthly CPI | +0.3%vs +0.6% in September |
|---|---|
| Expected core CPI | +0.2%vs +0.3% in September |
| December Fed hike odds | 78%from 67% on Thursday |
| Latest yearly CPI (September) | 3.7%no official October yearly rate |
| Gasoline, October estimate | $4.31/galabout -1% vs September (per [4]) |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.86%-0.07 pt on the week (per [3]) |
What happened
The US October CPI report, due Tuesday, is expected to show prices up 0.3% in the month, a cooling from September's 0.6%, and traders put a December Fed rate hike near 78%. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, are seen rising 0.2%. The government will not publish a yearly inflation rate for October because it could not collect prices during the 2025 shutdown, so a 3.9% yearly estimate (up from 3.7% in September) could not be confirmed. The report is the last before the Fed meets December 8-9.
Why it matters
The October consumer price index (CPI), a measure of what households pay for goods and services, matters because the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in December. A hotter reading could make a hike more likely, raising borrowing costs for loans and mortgages. A cooler one could ease that pressure. Stocks are also shaky after a sharp tech selloff, so the report could move markets.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedHigh impact
- Stocks and bonds may swing sharply on the data.
- CompanyneutralHigh impact
- Federal Reserve's December hike decision leans on this reading.
- CompetitorsbearishMedium impact
- Euro area inflation already at 4.0%; peers face pressure.
- IndustrybearishMedium impact
- Households face costly gasoline and possibly higher loan rates.
US vs Euro Area, UK
| United States— | 3.7% | Sep 2026 | 3.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euro area— | 4.0% | Oct 2026 (flash) | 3.8% |
| United Kingdom— | 3.5% | Sep 2026 | 3.1% |
As of 2026-11-09
How we got here
Government shutdown begins; no October 2025 prices collected, leaving a gap for yearly comparisons.
September CPI shows yearly inflation at 3.7% after a 0.6% monthly gain.
Tech-led selloff hits stocks; chip index drops over 12% in one day.
Stronger-than-expected jobs report lifts December hike odds back to about 78%.
October CPI due at 8:30 a.m. ET; BLS will skip yearly rate.
What to watch
- Monthly CPI versus the 0.3% forecast, and core versus 0.2%, released 8:30 a.m. ET.2026-11-10
- Federal Reserve meeting where traders expect a quarter-point rate hike.2026-12-08
- UK October inflation release, a check on price pressure among peers.2026-11-18
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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