PomegraIBM Stock Sits 29% Below Record Ahead of Q3 Earnings
What to expect from IBM earnings today?
IBM (IBM) stock sits about 29% below its $329 June record on Wednesday as options price a nearly 8% move on Q3 earnings after the close, with Red Hat in focus.
Key numbers
| Q3 EPS estimate | $2.87Consensus; another preview lists $2.86 [1] |
|---|---|
| Q3 revenue estimate | $16.84BConsensus; another preview lists $16.81B [1] |
| Options-implied move | ~8%Other trackers show 4%–7% |
| Red Hat growth, Q2 | +11%Software overall +5% |
| Q2 revenue | $17.2B+1% YoY |
| One-day drop, 14 July | -25.2%Record single-day fall |
What happened
IBM (IBM) stock sits about 29% below its $329 June record on Wednesday as options price a nearly 8% move on Q3 earnings after the close, with Red Hat in focus. IBM reports third-quarter results after the market closes today, and analysts expect profit of $2.87 per share on $16.84 billion in sales. Its shares fell 25.2% on 14 July, a record one-day drop, ahead of the weak second-quarter report. In that quarter, Red Hat, which sells open-source business software, grew 11%, but total sales rose just 1% to $17.2 billion.
Why it matters
IBM is one of the oldest and biggest technology companies, and its shares have lost much of their value since June. Today's report will show whether its software and AI business, led by Red Hat, can grow on its own. In the second quarter, software growth came entirely from acquisitions; without them it was flat. A weaker outlook could keep pressure on the shares even if results meet forecasts.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedMedium impact
- Options traders expect a big swing; both directions possible.
- CompanymixedHigh impact
- Shareholders face a sharp move after a record one-day drop.
- CompetitorsneutralLow impact
- Rivals may take IBM's demand signals as a sector read.
- IndustryneutralMedium impact
- Enterprise software and consulting demand gets another test.
IBM vs Accenture, Microsoft
How we got here
IBM shares hit a record high of $329.23.
IBM shares fall 25.2% in a single day, a record drop.
IBM reports Q2: revenue $17.2B, up 1%; Red Hat up 11%.
IBM reports Q3 results after the market close.
What to watch
- Red Hat and software growth, and how much comes without acquisitions.2026-10-21
- Whether consulting demand stabilizes after a flat second quarter.2026-10-21
- Outlook for coming quarters versus IBM's 4%–5% full-year revenue growth target.2026-10-21
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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