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India Trade Deal Nears as Rubio Visits After 100% Tariff Waiver
Why is Rubio visiting India?
India-US trade deal talks moved forward on Tuesday as Secretary of State Marco Rubio began a two-day India visit, days after Trump waived a threat of tariffs up to 100% over Russian oil purchases.
Key numbers
| Maximum US tariff threatened | 100%waived Oct 16 |
|---|---|
| India's Russian crude imports, Sept | 1.82M bpd-29% from July |
| India's Russian crude, Oct expected | 1.8-1.9M bpdsteady vs Sept |
| China's Russian crude imports, Sept | 1.49M bpdKpler; Reuters ranks China first overall |
| Share of crude India imports | >85%per Reuters |
What happened
India-US trade deal talks moved forward on Tuesday as Secretary of State Marco Rubio began a two-day India visit, days after Trump waived a threat of tariffs up to 100% over Russian oil purchases. The waiver, signed October 16, pauses a September law allowing tariffs of up to 100% on the five biggest buyers of Russian oil, including India. Rubio said trade-deal progress was a factor. He will meet Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Reliance chairman Mukesh Ambani. India's commerce secretary said on October 15 the first phase of the deal is in legal drafting.
Why it matters
The India-US trade deal would set tariff rules, meaning taxes on imported goods, between two of the world's biggest economies. The waiver removes one obstacle, but it has no end date and the president or secretary of state can withdraw it at any time. The US is also in a 60-day review of which tariffs, if any, to use. India imports over 85% of its crude oil, so energy costs are at stake.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedMedium impact
- Indian exporters and oil importers gain breathing room; risk remains.
- CompanyneutralLow impact
- Reliance hosts Rubio at Jamnagar, the world's largest refining complex.
- CompetitorsneutralMedium impact
- China, also named in the threat, gets the same pause.
- IndustrymixedMedium impact
- Refiners keep Russian oil access, but the waiver can end anytime.
India vs China
| India | 1.82M | 2.57M | -29% |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 1.49M | — | — |
As of 2026-10-14
How we got here
Trump signs law allowing tariffs up to 100% on top five Russian oil buyers.
India's commerce secretary says first phase of trade pact is finalised, in legal drafting.
Trump signs order waiving the law's tariff provisions, with no expiry date.
Rubio arrives in Mumbai for two-day India visit, then Jamnagar.
What to watch
- Whether India and the US sign the trade deal during or soon after Rubio's visit.2026-10-21
- Outcome of the 60-day US review on whether any new Russian-oil tariffs apply.Q4 2026
- Kpler data on whether India's Russian crude imports stay near 1.8-1.9 million barrels a day.Q4 2026
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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