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TSMC Q3 Profit Seen Rising 65% on AI Chip Demand
What are TSMC's Q3 2026 earnings expectations?
TSMC (TSM) is expected to report a Q3 profit up about 65% to NT$746.3 billion on Thursday, its sixth straight record, after AI chip demand lifted sales 51% to NT$1.49 trillion.
Key numbers
| Q3 revenue | NT$1.49T+51% YoY |
|---|---|
| Expected Q3 net profit | NT$746.3B+65% YoY |
| September revenue | NT$511.86B+54.6% YoY |
| Q3 sales vs company forecast | US$46.71Babove US$44.6–45.8B range |
| 2026 capex forecast (per [1]) | US$60–64Bup from US$52–56B |
| TSM ADR close, Oct 14 | $430.00-3.40% on the day |
What happened
TSMC (TSM) is expected to report a Q3 profit up about 65% to NT$746.3 billion on Thursday, its sixth straight record, after AI chip demand lifted sales 51% to NT$1.49 trillion. That sales figure beat the top of TSMC's own forecast of US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion. The profit estimate is an average of 16 analysts (LSEG); another forecast is slightly lower at NT$740.8 billion, up 64%. TSMC will explain its outlook for next quarter, its profit margins and its spending plans on a call at 06:00 GMT.
Why it matters
TSMC makes advanced chips for companies such as Apple, AMD and Nvidia, so its results show how strong spending on AI really is. Its Taiwan-listed shares are up about 63% this year, so investors expect a lot, and a weak profit margin or cautious forecast could move the stock. Its U.S.-listed shares fell 3.4% on Wednesday as chip stocks dropped after hotter-than-expected US inflation data.
Who this affects
- MarketmixedMedium impact
- AI-linked chip stocks could swing sharply on margins and outlook.
- CompanybullishHigh impact
- TSMC shareholders gain from record sales and rising profit.
- CompetitorsbearishMedium impact
- Rivals like Samsung and Intel face a stronger TSMC.
- IndustrybullishHigh impact
- AI chip makers and suppliers see strong demand continuing.
TSMC vs Nvidia, Intel, Samsung Electronics
How we got here
TSMC reports September revenue of NT$511.86B, up 54.6%, and record Q3 sales of NT$1.49T.
TSM shares close at $430.00, down 3.4%, as chip stocks fall on inflation worries.
TSMC reports Q3 results and holds its earnings call at 06:00 GMT.
What to watch
- TSMC's fourth-quarter sales and profit-margin forecast on the earnings call.2026-10-15
- Whether the 2026 spending forecast of US$60–64B rises again.2026-10-15
- Q3 gross margin versus the company's 65%–67% forecast range.2026-10-15
Educational content only. Not investment advice.
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